Tomash Fial: Import tax is better than the hryvnia devaluation by 70%. Interviews about money from the US and EU, the dollar exchange rate and the miscalculation of

In an interview with Radio HB, he tells how his assets were injured and are already being restored during the war, whether Ukraine has enough international assistance and why entrepreneurs are not limited to the interests of their own business. Let's start a video of the day with a general picture that is a certain marker of what is happening in the economy. Did your business be severely injured during a large -scale invasion? It was affected by all businesses, as did the country's economy.

There was a very big fall since the beginning of the war, now all our businesses operate from 50 to 90% of the pre -war level. This is much better than could be expected at the beginning of the war. We were able to restore everything except three warehouses in the parking lot, in Bucha and Gostomel - to the north and west of Kiev, where Russian troops were located. They fired these warehouses, and on March 4, unfortunately, there began a fire. Three warehouses were burned.

In May, we decided to partially repair two buildings - in Bucha and parking. Now they are already leased and work. But more than 80%, which is more than 100 thousand square meters. m, completely burned. We will restore them only after the war. I saw this huge logistics center in the parking lot. Sad sight. Did you count the losses? Yes, they counted. If you build such a warehouse from scratch, it is a minimum of $ 600 per square meter. m.

And we burned there without the possibility of recovery of somewhere 120 thousand square meters. m. It is $ 60 million. Plus you can count income that we do not receive until we rebuild these warehouses. In this terrible period there was no thought to leave Ukraine? No, there was no. On the second or third day after the start of the war, we gathered most teams in the Lviv region, made an office and worked. I have been living in Ukraine since 1996 - more than half of my life.

He spent a lot of time here, invested, and built a lot from scratch. This is my child, my business is here. Therefore, we do not want to leave Ukraine. We will work here further. In your opinion, as an investor, during this period managed to at least partially launch the economy? What is called the wartime economy? So.

If you tell someone before the war that Russia will start a full -scale attack on Ukraine, and in Ukraine everything will work: both the banking system, telecommunications, and electricity that 80% of the population will return to Kyiv, I would not believe it. That is, we were stable enough? So. Of course, we are very dependent on our Western partners. First, it is the USA, Canada, the EU. And in military support, first, in financial support.

We have a huge budget deficit: military expenditures have grown 5-6 times, budget revenues have fallen. But Ukraine is kept primarily because there are a large number of Ukrainians who are fighting. In the east we have almost a million armies. When you communicate with people in Europe, with foreigners, everyone is very surprised. They are inspired by how Ukrainians fight for their freedom, for their country.

According to NBU Chairman Kirill Shevchenko, Ukraine has lost almost a third of foreign exchange reserves: at the beginning of the year there was $ 31 billion, now - $ 22. 4 billion, and they are increasing. This means that the economy cannot be recovered on the extent that is needed, and external assistance, I understand, is not enough. What would you advise you to do in this situation? For the last two months, the NBU reserves are at a stable level, about $ 22-23 billion.

They do not show the money we get in the form of grants from the United States. And this is about $ 4 billion, which are in the accounts of the Ministry of Finance in Ukreximbank, are spent from there. Therefore, we have these reserves a little higher than the National Bank shows. We are now restoring agricultural exports, it should add $ 800-900 million to export revenue a month. This is significant - more than 25% of our exports. There is also fake import.

Many companies transfer money abroad for imports that they do not plan to make, and these products will not go. Is this withdrawal of capital from Ukraine? Yes, buying dollars at the official rate. This money, dollars or euros, is transferred abroad and can be up to 180 days. Before the expiration of this term, either the goods must go to Ukraine, or you must return the money. The course may be higher at the moment, and the dollars you bought at 29 UAH/$, convert 36 UAH/$.

After the war, both exports and imports fell more than 50%. But imports recovered much faster - in June, only a minus 13%was imported. It is an unrealistic low fall if the economy has fallen by 35%! That is, this import has a large percentage of fake imports, which both the National Bank and the Government have to fight. In 2015, 10% for import was introduced. Now there is the same idea. The National Bank has been calling for the third month.

It looks like the government and office of the President also support this idea. But it would have to be realized in a different form than in 2015. It is necessary to fight this fake import, so it is necessary to shoot 10% when buying a currency, not when importing a product, which may not go. The Union of Ukrainian Entrepreneurs opposes the introduction of such taxes. Is there a conflict? This is a working conflict.

Of course, this is not very useful for some of our companies - extra cost will be extra. For example, machine -building plants import some equipment, it will rise by 10%. But now we do not have a choice between good and bad solutions, but between bad and even more bad ones.

If you choose between the macroeconomic stability and the stability of the rate on the one hand, and the devaluation by 70%, as in 2015 - on the other, I will rather choose the price increase of some imports by 10%, but a more stable exchange rate. If we do not introduce these 10%, then in a few months we will have to devalue the hryvnia several times more than by these 10%. We will lose much more.

Only the interest of your enterprise can be seen, but entrepreneurs should be more aware of the macroeconomic situation in the country - fiscal situation, reserves, our exports, imports. It's not so difficult. We need to look at the situation much wider. And what do you think, businesses have reserves to look more about this situation, understand what is happening, and move in this case by 10%? Someone has, no one. There is a big difference. Yes, the economy fell by 30-35% this year.

And some businesses that are in the occupied territory have lost everything there. There are those who are engaged in Western Ukraine with logistics, and vice versa earns more than before the war - logistics services on the western border have risen at times. In general, all in the downside an average of 30-40%. By the way, did you have assets in the occupied territories? No. We lost what burned in the Kiev region, but we had nothing in the occupied territories.

Interestingly, what directions were 90%recovered? We have some assets - in the Lviv region. Lviv, Vinnytsia, Western Ukraine - they resumed there. There is also a machine -building company, where clients confirmed about 80% of orders that were at the beginning of the war. We often hear about the economic support of a country that should be provided by analogy with the military.

And at the same time, we see that, for example, the EU is a little slowed by macro -financial support for Ukraine of 9 billion euros. In your opinion, what should this support be? What is the scale? How to use it? First of all, we need two supports. First, military support-heavy weapons, ammunition, shells and so on. With regard to economic support, it is, first and foremost, budget support. These figures are also familiar to everyone.

The IMF, the World Bank confirmed them in April at a meeting in Washington - $ 4-5 billion every month. We were promised more than $ 30 billion, we received almost half - about $ 14 billion. Only in August we get $ 5 billion. But August is already over. Will we get them? We will definitely get them. We have already received almost $ 2 billion, and another $ 3 billion from the US - in the form of a grant. It is very good that they allocate $ 8.

5 billion support in the form of grants and we should not return them. As for the EU, there are 9 billion in the form of long -term loans, they are interest -free - the European Commission covers interest. These loans are long, but they will have to be returned or somehow negotiated with them. So far, we have only received only one from the EU. But before that they received macro -financial assistance from the EU. So they all help us. Of course, I would like it to be faster.

And that the National Bank did not need to buy a government boar and print money. So nine billion euros will Ukraine get? So. One is, eight more by the end of the year, it is one hundred percent. This can be called Marshall's peculiar plan? We are talking about the Land League in the military sphere. So far, it is support for the war. This money does not go into investments, do not go to support military expenses, do not go to the military, everything else.

They go to social costs, pensions, salaries for doctors, teachers and so on. As for the Marshall Plan, this is a longer -term perspective. These investments, I'm afraid, will only come after the war. Perhaps something is small - before the end. We invited $ 750 billion, I think will be less. But if there is $ 30-40 billion a year, it is a very big impetus for our economy. For comparison, Poland receives $ 10 billion a year from the EU. And it is felt. If you come to Poland - roads, highways and so on.

They are better there. If we get more than Poland receives from the EU, $ 20-30 billion, or even more, we will feel it. And the salaries will grow faster, jobs will be created. Investments in Ukraine after the war are possible? Everyone thinks that investments will leave. But on the other hand, investors understand that Russia has not gone anywhere, it can strike at any time. We will have such a situation as in Israel, which copes very well with it.