Oil market: attacks on refineries in the Russian Federation can hurt US policy - Bloomberg

According to the newspaper, only this week Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refining plant in Tatarstan, located almost 1500 kilometers from the border. At least 10 attacks on oil refineries have already been conducted. According to RBC Capital Markets analysts, about 13% of Russian capacity has been damaged. The real problem for Russia is that attacks on oil refineries can harm it than the world as a whole.

Russian plants produce a slight excess of gasoline, which is often not exported, and excess diesel fuel, most of which is exported. Therefore, attacks can affect Russian consumers primarily, Bloomberg. For the affected Ukrainians, this situation may be acceptable as they continue to receive assistance.

However, there is a problem: the opposition of Republicans prevents the allocation of a new US package from the United States, which is about 40% of the total military support provided to Ukraine at this time. Nadiya rests with the speaker Mike Johnson will vote on this issue at the end of the month, but his faction is unstable as the price of oil.

At the same time, in January next year, the White House may return to the former President Donald Trump, who is "not very well known for his comprehensive support of Ukraine. " "Strengthening attacks on Russian oil refineries can be considered as hedging in Kiev not only against the stability of his enemy, but also against the duality of his largest donor. Why take into account the wallets of American drivers if Washington goes?" - writes the publication.

At the same time, increasing attacks by Ukraine raises real risks of violation of the global oil market. In addition, increased conflict in the Middle East can further aggravate the situation. These factors can have a serious impact on the world energy markets, according to the material. The publication notes that the increase in attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries has become a kind of indicator of increased fear in energy markets.

The ratio of long and short positions of money managing in futures and raw options has doubled this year. The last attacks of Ukraine from a long distance showed its ability to attack a large part of Russian oil refining facilities, as well as the rest of the oil infrastructure. About 60% of Russia's export capacities are in the reach of Ukrainian attacks. If Ukraine was able to attack sea terminals, tankers and oil pipelines, it could have seriously affected the global oil market.

Russia exports about five million barrels of crude oil and condensate daily exceeding the export of petroleum products. Oil from other countries, such as Kazakhstan, supplied to the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, passes through Russia. "To the extent that any Ukraine's decision on escalation will be determined by its luck on the front, the future battle on the US electoral map will also be of great importance. Washington can still come from this war.

But that does not mean that it will be immune to the consequences" , - the material reads. We will remind, on April 5, the speaker of the Pentagon Patrick Ryder stated that Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries exclusively on its own, without the help of the United States. Earlier, NATO stated that the blows of Ukraine in oil refineries in the Russian Federation may have led to a violation of more than 15% of the country's capacity.