Chinese space rocket will fall to the ground on Sunday: known details

The problem is that the Chinese side does not provide controlled rocket descent, and experts believe that it will not completely burn in the atmosphere, and some of its large fragments will fall to the surface on Sunday, July 31, according to Sciecnealert. The Changozhen-5V rocket launcher made its third flight in 2 years and this time its mission was to deliver a new segment for the Chinese Space Station.

But its spent degree will soon enter the atmosphere of the Earth and is expected, most of the rockets will fall apart and burn. But experts predict that there will be a large part of the rocket, with a total weight of 4 to 9 tons, which will reach the surface of the planet and this will happen this Sunday, July 31. Earlier, Focus wrote that this rocket would fall to Earth on August 1.

The CMSA Chinese Agency, which deals with piloted space flights, stated that as of July 27, the rocket turned around the Earth with an elliptical orbit at a distance of 263 km at the farthest point and 176 km at the nearest point from the planet's surface. New data has not yet been received.

According to experts from the US non -profit organization Thereospace Corporation, the exact place of falling of the rocket is impossible to install, it will become known when it enters the Earth's atmosphere on Sunday. Experts have made an approximate map that shows in which land the Chinese rocket can enter the atmosphere. Experts believe that large fragments of the falling rocket will fall into the territory of about 2 thousand kilometers in length and 70 kilometers wide.

The wreckage of the Changzhen-5B rocket was already falling in the ocean, but on land, and it happened in 2020 in West Africa. Then the fragments fell near small settlements and went without casualties. According to analyst Ted Mulhaupta from The Aerospace Corporation, the probability that the fragments of the rocket will cause significant damage to infrastructure, and even more so, people are very low but not zero.

"According to our forecasts, it is likely that large fragments will fall into the area inhabited by people. And the jungle, "says Mulhaupt. According to the analyst, the same Chinese missile last year also made an uncontrolled descent into the atmosphere and not all its parts burned. Some fragments fell to the ground, but into the Indian Ocean. Experts believe that the likelihood that someone will suffer or die from the fall of the rocket fragments ranges from 1 to 1000 to 1 to 230.

And this is a fairly high figure, because scientists believe that mostly the risk of injury or the risk of being killed. From such an event is 1 to 10000. But Mulhaupt still believes that the risk of suffering from a space fall for any person is much lower, and it is 6 by 10 trillions. For comparison, the chance that you will have lightning 80 thousand times higher.