Not in kilometers, but in the loss of Russia. How does Ukrainian counter -offensive work

Looking at many reports from the fronts in the south of the Zaporozhye region in the last few days, even weeks, you can confidently talk about two things: as mentioned, about August 24-27, the 58th Division was so broken that its collapse and therefore the Ukrainian breakthrough Between the robot and Verbov was inevitable.

The stupid command responded with a throw of four VAT divisions - the strategic reserve of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation; This is the best thing that was in Russia before the war; The troops they use first and foremost to accomplish the most difficult tasks.

I think to make the situation "better", probably because of the urgent need to convey Putin videos with "good news", the stupid command not only launched these troops on the defense line to replace the mutilated parts of the 58th name. No! It sent them to a large counterattack. The idea - at least, seems to me - was "obvious": to cover "boiler" or "bulge", which was formed as a result of the penetration of Ukrainian troops south of mine field And get rid of 4-5 crews.

To complete the Ukrainian offensive, which "failed" already…. When did the stupid command stated that he had fallen - on June 6 or June 7? In fact, if you think: this time stupid commander even acted on their own doctrine. In the end, putting your hand on the heart: VAT is a landing troops. It is best suited for attack, bad for defense purposes. Therefore, it was "to some extent logically" used for a big counter -attack. The thing is that it didn't work.

The Russians lost not only most of the 810th Marine Corps, but also spent three VAT regiments. Almost a whole division! They suffered such casualties that the surviving two regiments broke out and escaped. So much so that the 118th OMB of the Armed Forces-a unit that was strongly shaken during its first attack in this operation in August-rejected them back to the starting positions. It was east of the robot/north of the willow.

The 7th VAT Division lost even most of the command staff, and the 234th and 237th VAT regiments (both of the 76th VAT Division) do not exist in fact . . . In this essence the reason why the Armed Forces did not achieve any serious Territorial success in the last few weeks: it was occupied by the fact that it allowed the Russians to bleed their best units. (By the way, it is rumored that one of the Armed Forces involved in these battles has lost exactly two BMPs and two soldiers wounded).

And what a successful turn - on September 22 followed a blow to the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. About 34 senior officers were destroyed - the command corps of Russian troops in the occupied Crimea, South Kherson and South Zaporozhye. More than 100 people were injured, many are critical. And this is in Sevastopol, which was full of Ukrainian guerrillas, or at least informants and compassionate.

Due to this, the glorious company "Gerasimov & Co" now returned to where it was almost one month ago. Their question is: what next? Because they even launched their strategic reserve, and it was destroyed even at a faster rate than the 58th name-much faster than I expected-they did not have reserves. Of course, they will find more mobes-lacizers, and "storm-Z", and anyone, and throw them in this direction, but better troops than those who lost 7 and 76 VAT, in Russia. This battlefield.

And the further south of the Ukrainians move, the weaker the Russian field fortifications become weaker. The Armed Forces had already overcome the "worst", back in June-July and early August. It was a combination of ten -kilometer dense mine fields and the best Russian field fortifications.

Compared to this, the defeat of VAT, which came out openly for counterattack and with support - finally - a sufficient number of artillery shells (and this is from two full artillery brigades) was "something like a lung. " In just a few days, Ukrainians are already inside Novoprokovka, inside the willow. The boys, of course, are tired, sometimes there are many wounded, but their mood is elevated.

For those to whom this "metric" may not be enough (and I sincerely hope that no representative of the US leading media will read the following, because they will never be able to understand it), keep in mind. Judging by the statistics published by official Kiev, more Russian artillery was destroyed for each of the last four months of the Armed Forces than in the first four months of this year, combined.

Better even better: if you judge from what is now known, it was done during a well -planned, carefully and patient surgery. This included a significant "softening" of the Russian air defense in the second half of June and especially in July, and then - as soon as the path was opened due to the suppression of air defense - the systematic destruction of numerous Russian artillery brigades and artillery elements of various other units began.

And in September, the Ukrainians aimed at Russian counterattack plus artillery and were not ashamed also to smash Russian air defense in Crimea. The effects are dramatic: Ukrainian UAVs maneuver over the battlefield in search of Russian artillery tools. Even Ukrainian helicopters can act where they were not visible for months. Russian bases in Crimea explode one by one; Those in the Tokmak area too.

Closer to the front line, the Russians suffer such losses and suffer such wear of weapons that they do not have time to devastate their weapons. The pace of production of tanks and repair of T-72 and T-80, which are in storage, no longer correspond to losses. In other words, "destruction and expectation. " The Armed Forces lead a systematic, large -scale, gradual destruction of the Russian armed forces.

Every day, they destroy Russian air defense, radio electronic fighting systems, their artillery, their logistics, their tanks and hundreds of Russian servicemen. And they come only when it is convenient. And when the Russians bring even more, it is even more destroyed. Pro rata. It is the only real indicator for the assessment of the offensive - and, as it was often explained, the only way out of this war. It's ugly, not sexy and not fast. But it works. That's all.