Avdiivka is not Mariupol. Why would Russia be harder to take cokemis than azovstal

I think it will not last longer than a day, so in the near future the enemy will restore massive attacks and assault actions in several directions and sections. A few days ago, I wrote that, obviously, the fate of the Avdeevsky district of defense will be decided in its South Fas. However, obviously, the enemy is "a little" viewing this situation. It is becoming increasingly important, where the situation is more favorable to it.

There, probably 114th separate motorized rifle brigade (OMSBR) of the enemy, from the 1st Army Corps (AK), with the support of units of the 15th OMSBR and the 277th separate shooting battalion mobilization reserve (OSB MR) will try to break into the area of ​​Avdiivsky coke plant as well as in the direction of the village of Stepov and Berdichi.

The enemy pulled up to his leading positions in the height area with a mark of 230, at least 2 subdivisions (to the mouth of each) type "Storm-Z" (a clear sign of preparation for intense attacking actions in this area), as well as individual units of the 109th SMEs 1st ak. Now the enemy's command, in respect of the North Fas, will have to solve a certain dealem.

The fact is that it will be difficult to advance on a comparable wide front (both on the steppe and coke) for him (this will require constant introduction of fresh forces into battle). At the same time, it is quite obvious that in the case of taking the enemy under the control of "coke", for him an urgent need for a breakthrough in Berdych and steppe - will simply fall off.

After all, in this case, the task of entering the area of ​​the village of Orlovka (that is, in fact, on the rear of the entire Avdiivsky district of defense) will become possible on the shortest way, with the use and Berdychi. However, attacking and assault actions in the area of ​​continuous industrial development are still "pleasure".

Remember how Azov kept on Azovstal - and you will understand all the charms for attacking the enemy troops, if they attempt to attack their own Avdeevsky Coke Combine. In this sense, the Mariupol conditions with the Avdiivsky do not even compare.

There, the enemy practically isolated our units and kept them surrounded, attacking almost continuously and with the opportunity to choose directions and plots for his attacks and storms at his own discretion, while at the same time without interruption, "the plant" in the plants "in the crushed stone and artillery.

In the area of ​​Avdiivka of all bonuses, the enemy is deprived of, to break into the cokemake, he can now only in one direction (well known Ukrainian command), from the height with a mark 230, his aviation and artillery are forced to consider the current air defense in the area Countercatal capabilities . . . And the continuity of attacking and assault actions, in this case, it is likely to be a minus than a plus for the enemy.

Yes, to "fall out" immediately and quickly on the rear of the Avdiivsky district of the Armed Forces through the Avdiivsky Coke Combine (exit to the border of Orlovka-laboratoryn), for the enemy . . . Well-in-u-in-u-u-u-u-in-law "Zarechivo". However, obviously, "going everywhere" of his territory will be clearly "critical", if not "expensive" expensively.

By the way, all these considerations obviously visited the heads of Russian teams and chiefs of the appropriate level a few more days because they testify at once a few things: as far as I understand, the enemy's command also expects that its group operating in the South Fas ( In the direction of Water-tone and Water-Seveverne) are mainly the forces and means of the 1st AK, the maintenance of units of the 55th OMSBR of the enemy from the composition of the 41st General Army (ID), which, as it turns out, is also here.

They drove from the estuary, will help the northern group . . . mainly delayed some of the Ukrainian tactical and operational reserves. Their latest promotion towards S. Tonieke, as the Russian command hopes, probably according to his calculations, will force the Ukrainian command to deploy additional forces along the turn of the Tonenke -Ceverne. I think when they "fix it", then 114-a, 15-A and 21-A OMSBR "sharply revive" towards Avdiivsky Koksohim . . .

Finally, Decih words about the meaning that "surgery in the area of ​​Avdiivka", is given ", Obviously, the Russian command and in general the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation. In order to unnecessary words about this, we list more or less great formations of Russian troops that are already involved in it . . .

And in this context, one can mention the "newly formed" of the 25th Army, which now "replaced" in the Lyman direction of the union and unification Problems "for the Armed Forces of their 39th OMSBR . . . It is obvious that they all act according to one plan (plan), about the course of which, in fact," Mesier Gerasimov "in the headquarters of the Southern Military District (south) Rostov, Pouilo himself a couple of weeks ago . . . He now needs more or less significant "victory".