Today has changed the war. How will Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant affect further events

Political scientist Alexander Kochetkov calls the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station "the black swan" that was waiting. One way or another, but this event strongly changes the course of war. Black swan flew over the dam? Ulewing the Kakhovsky Dam is not yet a "black swan", that is, an unexpected event that changes everything. The Ukrainian authorities even warned that the occupiers were replacing the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station and preparing a terrorist attack.

But this is "gray swan", because the consequences will still be large -scale, with a serious impact on the course of war. The nature of the water flow makes it possible to conclude that the "body" of the dam stood, otherwise an artificial tsunami would appear immediately 8-10 meters high. And then it would be just a horror for residents of coastal territories.

But now the threat to other dams of the Dnieper cascade, first of all, the Zaporozhye hydroelectric power station, due to the fact that the water load on them increases. And our hydropower must act adequately and carefully. Absolutely meaningless reasoning, whether the occupiers were blown up, the dam, or maybe she was destroyed by herself . . . For everything that happened during an unprovable aggression, the aggressor is responsible.

The destruction of the Kakhovsky Dam is another Kremlin's military crime that lay in the folder in the Hague. For me, there is no doubt that the Russians have undermined the dam, in this way to restrain the Ukrainian offensive. Calculation for two circumstances. First, the Crimean direction is considered promising for our offensive. And it is known that the islands in the lower reaches of the Dnieper have Ukrainian DRG, preparing something like intermediate bridgeheads.

Therefore, the invaders hope to wash away these parts with an artificial wave. By the way, exactly they tried to do the same under the crooked horn. Secondly, after flooding the large areas of the left bank of Kherson region will turn into swamps for several weeks, which is extremely difficult to move. And this has to hold our offensive.

The aggressor is absolutely pierced for the suffering of Ukrainians on both shores of the Dnieper, as well as in Crimea, which risks staying for the summer almost without water. If the non -imperia is not able to capture Ukraine, it will try to destroy it. And Ukrainian diplomacy needs to be immediately brought to our allies and partners: the more we will have modern offensive weapons, the faster we delect our land and make such catastrophes.