Nuclear attack, test or detonation: what predicts a bookmaker who puts on Trump

The next increase in expectations occurred on the day when the United States was allowed to beat Ukraine with long -range missiles. Real time forecasts can be seen on the Polymarket portal. The users of the portal have already put more than $ 1 million. The forecast for whether a nuclear explosion will take place by December 31, 2024. On the graph, we see that the highest rates were on November 6: 27% that the explosion will be.

After that, there was a fall, and then the peak on November 18, which, however, did not exceed the assumptions of ten days ago. So far, users estimate the chances of detonation at a level of 10%: people are ready to put 10 cents on it. Under the schedule of forecasts - the rules according to which they will determine, play or do not play rates. You can see that the rates began to be taken from July 1, 2024, and Deadline - December 31, 2024 at 23:59.

Separately described what they mean by "nuclear detonation": it is a nuclear attack, and nuclear tests, and even false detonation. What the explosion should be confirmed by reliable sources, reads on the "Will A Nuclear Weaponate Dentonate in 2024?" Voting page? More than 200 comments appeared under the vote on a nuclear explosion. Some commentators indicate that you can put all the money on "yes" and then suddenly the Russian Federation or the DPRK will conduct nuclear tests.

They also mentioned nuclear weapons, which could probably appear in Ukraine after stopping US assistance. Others mentioned the new Russian nuclear doctrine, which was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The portal was bet on Trump's victory and predicted it: the Republican was given 61% that he would gain more Americans' votes than Democrata Kamala Harris. In addition, there is another vote: whether the war in Ukraine will end within 90 days.

It should be noted that after Ukraine has received permission to strikes Western long -range weapons throughout the Russian Federation, the Russian authorities warned that it would be the answer, but did not specify whether it would be nuclear. After that, the Armed Forces, as suggested, launched ATACMS missiles on the arsenal in the Bryansk region. Meanwhile, on November 19, Putin signed a nuclear doctrine, which was discussed in early autumn.

The doctrine states that Ukraine can hit a nuclear bomb if there is a mass air attack with various means of damage (drones, rockets). At the same time, The Times published a report that Ukrainian scientists have written for the Ministry of Defense. The report states that Ukraine may probably create a nuclear bomb based on reactor plutonium for several months.