Range money shovel: how banks earn billions during the war

"In the first two months of this year alone, the banking system of Ukraine has earned UAH 21. 5 billion - 33% of pure margin by income. Marzha, which is twice as high in 2018, and record since the world financial crisis 2008. This is a story about How in the hryvnia and the economy walking around the edge, you can get a record profit. " Opinion. The NBU prints UAH 400 billion for the authorities: all six dozen banks are involved in this.

For the first two months of this year, the banking system earned UAH 21. 5 billion. - This is 33% of pure margin by income. Margin, which is twice as high as Mirnric in 2018, and record (at the level of 2020) since the world financial crisis of 2008. Banks' revenues have increased by 33% of r/g - to UAH 66 billion. Banks' expenses increased by 12% p/g - to UAH 44 billion.

As a result, the news of incredible premiums for banks, especially those owned by the Government: "For great achievements in a difficult time for the country" is expected at the end of the year. How did it turn out that the war is war, and the profit goes, as it is by schedule? The war is the road, and the increase in tax rates is a long -term decision. And there is no one to take them from the economy, which actually paused.

Therefore, with the beginning of the war, the NBU began to actively print money for the budget of power (power is not a state, the state is not power, let's share). Nothing special, every power during the war takes an inflation tax - prints new money, buys various benefits on them, and later, due to the increase in money supply, prices for increasing. As a result, the purchasing power of money that is in citizens falls. We seemed to pay any taxes, but we all became poorer.

Well, under this purpose, the NBU published and issued the authorities of UAH 390 billion (remember this figure) last year, increasing its portfolio of the TPP by 2. 3 times! That is why international support is so important, which is why the IMF requires the NBU to stop printing money, because inflation is 26%, otherwise it will seem flowers. Further, the authorities gradually poured this money into the economy - by paying social assistance and payments to servicemen.

Servicemen do not have time to think about purchases, and in general consumer sentiment during the war is not in the best position. As a result, a bunch of money simply settles fixed in banks. It is difficult to bring them abroad, and to spend on consumption or invest in Ukraine, even put on a deposit - scary (with such inflation and uncertainty). After all these decisions, we have a huge excess liquidity in the banking system, the money that is simply "in current accounts" - UAH 500 billion.

For comparison, in 2021 the average volume amounted to UAH 90 billion (these are 390 billion, printed by the NBU). That is, every 5 hryvnia, or 20% of the net assets of banks, is actually a "cache" that at any time can rush into the economy: it is unknown where, under what conditions and with what consequences, citizens and business may be massively massively They will open long -term deposits or spend their money.

In order to somehow take control of this situation, the NBU decides to tie this money in its accounts, giving banks the opportunity to place these funds for their "one -day deposit". Thus, on average, daily in the last quarter of 2022 the NBU raised UAH 340 billion. This year, UAH 370 billion (almost as much as the NBU has printed - UAH 390 billion). The National Bank pays for these deposits 20% per annum (9% - by June 2022, and 23% by April 7 this year).

From April 2022, when this process began to unfold, banks have earned on one -day deposits in the NBU 27 billion UAH, or more than the annual profit of the banking system for the entire 2022 years. This year, in 2 months, banks have already earned 13 billion UAH - 61% of all banks' income. If it were not for deposits in the NBU, the banking system margin would not be a record 33%, but more familiar 13%. Many questions: from "Where is it all going?" And to "Why again at the expense of citizens?" 1.

For the first two months of 2023, banks earned UAH 21. 5 billion. In the usual 2018 and 2019, the first two months provided 25% of annual profit. It turns out that banks can get UAH 86 billion this year? Is this meaning? Citizens who carry and carry the burden of inflation from printed hryvnias do not receive adequate interest on deposits. Why then have banks to receive excesses due to excess liquidity? After all, citizens do not have worthy rates on deposits. 2.

But they will also say that banks direct these income to reserves. According to the NBU, a third of the loans issued by businesses and citizens can be non -working - it is UAH 200 billion. Therefore, banks have been put in reserves 120 billion UAH last year and now they have 360 ​​billion UAH in reserves.

Is it fair that everyone will carry the burden of inflation, but those who have lost their home or whose business was physically destroyed will not carry the burden of loans for destroyed assets? - So. It is fair if banks write down such loans at the expense of profit from excess liquidity. But the situation changed. If in February-October 2022 banks were directed to reserves more money than remained as a result of profit, then in the last 2 months of last year the situation is opposite.

In the same year, for a record profit of UAH 21. 5 billion in two months, banks were allocated to reserves UAH 2. 5 billion (ridiculous 29 million for February, perhaps the guilty T -bills, which can be credited as reserves). If there are enough reserves, then again - why should banks only benefit from excess liquidity, because they will pay for the print hryvnia exclusively citizens? 3. The NBU is trying to solve this problem and regain control of the rates in the economy.

There are actions, but the problem is not resolved why? Decisive and faster actions threaten the stability of the banking system? Is it not against the NBU that banks have a survey during the war and received international awards for it? We have a bad situation that can still be resolved until it has gone into "populism" and the headings "pick up and divide (of course, in favor of the budget)", for example, some additional tax on banks (banks ( The idea of ​​not stealing).