Putin does not want and cannot: 4 reasons why war will not stop in the coming months

The Telegraph published an article that during the war in Russia formed a middle class that does not want the end of the war. And this is perhaps the main reason for the continuation of the fighting. Many Ukrainian media outlined this, well, almost nonsense. In the book "Postputin. Russia with which we will have to live for the next 50 years" I, together with Vitaliy Pirovich, tried to calculate the beneficiaries of this war.

And there are not as many as it may seem at first glance - about 10% of the total population of the Russian Federation. But this is, firstly, not quite the middle class, but secondly, we can only guess which part of them seeks to continue the war at any cost (I assume that not 100%, but at the maximum, 70-75%). The reasons why Putin does not want the end of the war is completely different.

What are the reasons? For me, these are the main factors that affect the entire geopolitical game of Russia today. Economic logic plus nucleus is what Trump likes, but his goal is a successful negotiation with the PRC just start. China's logic - within the limits of these negotiations, officially obtain the status of the second pole of the world and agree on trade coexistence in the next 10-15 years, which provides for the collapse of the WTO system (this is what Trump will insist on).

And, of course, China and the US will agree on such rules of the game where there will be no direct military clash between them. Our basic problem (at all levels, including expert) is a reluctance to understand the changes that are already taking place in our eyes. And so we need to change the negotiation strategy. A new negotiation logic is not just the appearance of another key negotiator. It is also a new race by at least 5 thousand meters.