War without money: as sanctions against Russia will undermine the enemy's military potential

For this country, G7 is involved in heavy artillery on the sanction front - oil sanctions. In his review, "Coercion to defeat. How long Russia will be able to wage war without oil dollar" Focus analyzes when the sanctions imposed by the West will deprive the aggressor with the opportunity to finance the war against Ukraine. The opinions of the experts surveyed were divided.

"There is a lot of money in the Russian Federation, so sanctions look more as a means of additional pressure on the aggressor, not as a tool for depriving him of his physical ability to fight," - says Dmitry Gorununov, a senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES). Gennady Ryabtsev, director of special projects of NTC "Psyche", suggests that the effect of sanctions concerning the oil and gas sector will appear no earlier than the second half of 2023.

"Restricting Russian oil prices will reduce the revenues of the Russian budget. This will reduce the cost of war and social needs, which means less missiles and more dissatisfied with their lives of Russians," - comments Agia Zagrebelsk, founder of the "Antitrast League".

For his part, Vitaliy Shapran, a member of the NBU Council expresses the hope that in the first quarter of 2023 the federal budget will not have enough money for "stupid military fun", and no one will be producing missiles, tanks, artillery and other weapons for free. In the review, focus also draws a parallel between modern Russia and the USSR, one of the main prerequisites for the collapse of which was a long period of low oil prices.

Having lost the stable flow of oil dollar, the Soviet Empire lost the opportunity to continue aggressive foreign policy and stop the desire of the former Soviet republics for independence. Perhaps the "Putin mode" will be finally impressed with the same weapon.

According to Vitaliy Shapran in the comment of focus, in the non -energy sector of the Russian economy, under the influence of previously introduced sanctions, the following signs of collapse are already revealed: "If the oil industry falls by 50%, then it will be on the verge of survival," - the expert predicts. Meanwhile, Putin claims that Russia has lost nothing by solving the war in Ukraine.