Eurobonds with maturity in 2025-2026 are rolled with a profitability of 91-130%, longer papers-with a profit 48% . The bonds are cheaper by 10-15%, having lost the growth of October-November-and traded on 15-20 cents per dollar. The key reasons for increasing profitability are to increase the risk assessment of Ukraine as an issuer against the background of potential escalation of war in the spring and a corresponding decrease in business activity .
Moddy's February 14 worsened the sovereign credit rating with CAA3 (high credit risk) to Ca (probable default). However, expectations changed from negative to stable. The company predicts the war will not allow Ukraine to recover in 2023 - waiting for a 2%GDP. And breaking the trend in 2024, thanks to the reconstruction of the destroyed infrastructure . . . "And now a simple comment on investment during the war for our fellow citizens.
Here is just one of the answers! Ukrainian Eurobonds show profitability at hundreds of percent per annum in euro! This is natural for the war countries and foreign investors are waiting for a probable default. And why not earn a hundred percent per annum in the euro? And on our government securities? The population has more than $ 80 billion in cash. Another $ 15 billion is in the foreign exchange accounts of the population with banks that bring them 1% per annum.
Currently, more than a hundred years old is earned by foreign investment funds, not soldiers and sergeants of the Armed Forces, who do not know what to invest their savings, their salary received on the front! And not simple citizens of Ukraine who work in the rear! Because even before the war, Ukrainians did not reach one of the key economic freedoms: freedoms to dispose of their money, honestly earned, from which taxes have already been paid! Important explanation: these tens and hundreds of percent will not pay our customers with the war of the state budget! The Ministry of Finance, both paid and paying when repayment of its Eurobonds, only the face value and fixed percentage of the coupon (6-7%).
The crazy profitability of our sovereign bonds in the European market is born today at the expense of the same proportional losses of foreign investors who are panicked in the market of our bonds! Because they do not believe in Ukraine or our victory! And we believe! Is not it? At the same time, we believe that they are ready to take the risk of buying them when everyone else sells and earn those interest for the risk I wrote above.
And why can't we do this? Because we have missed the attack on our economic rights and freedoms before the war! Because we have passionately supported all the restrictions on investing abroad against the "oligarchs", which the Verkhovna Rada has implemented year after year! And now we are deprived of this sacred right to freely dispose of our own funds that have already been taxed! Yes of course.
However, with one reservation: during the war it is advisable to limit the purchase of currency (dollar or euro for the hryvnia), so as not to stimulate additional pressure for the exchange rate. However, I do not see any "macroeconomic loss" in the fact that Ukrainians can make money on Ukrainian Eurobonds from their own foreign currency accounts. By investing their currency savings, which they already have.
To ban Ukrainians (both to the population, as well as companies, and domestic banks) to buy Ukrainian sovereign Eurobonds is not just atavism. It is meanness in modern conditions. Panizing foreign investors are ready to carry out the losses regarding our Eurobonds.
Ukrainians who believe in Ukraine and its victory are ready to earn it! What interferes? Artificial restrictions and regulations that the National Bank and the CMU can be withdrawn with one decree in one day (even no laws in the Council should be adopted).
So, returning to the question: what interferes? And it prevents the inability of the authorities to think of the priority of economic freedoms of the population and business of the country! At least in issues such as the access of the Ukrainian to the Ukrainian Eurobonds market.
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