They will not be lured home: how will the Ukrainian refugee affect the war in the Russian Federation - The Economist

The publication turned to a study of the Center of Economic Strategy (CES), which asked Ukrainians whether they plan to return home. It turned out that the number of people who would like to return reaches 48%. These results are one and a half times smaller than in 2022 (78%). Respondents explained that they take into account not only the very fact of the end of the war, but also how it would end. Today it is clear that Ukraine will not have NATO protection and will not become an EU member.

In this case, the fifth part will remain in occupation. Due to this ceasefire, people do not cause special trust, The Economist wrote. "Many Ukrainians are afraid that Russia will be attacking again," the article summarizes. Another issue that was touched by the publication is the additional impact of suspension of hostilities on demography. Due to ceasefire from Ukraine, 500,000 men could leave, The Economist wrote.

"Since it would be a disaster for the Ukrainian labor market and its ability to defend themselves, the country will be hesitant to mitigate restrictions," the journalists explained. The article also describes the situation with temporary protection of the EU and the position of Ukrainians. In Europe, 4. 2 million citizens of Ukraine and the EU are likely to continue to extend this status in March 2026. The unemployment rate is different from country to country.

For example, 67% of refugees are employed in Poland and it is mostly women with children. In Germany - 43%, in Spain and Italy - even lower. Women work at low -skilled work, but do not see the future in Ukraine, the article is said. "Even if the war is over now, it will start again. In such circumstances, the mother will want to take her son to Ukraine," the journalists of the Ukrainian woman, who does not want to "play a gambling with two children.