4 Options of the War: When and how can it happen based on the current situation

Based on today's situation, analyst Anatoly Amelin sees four ways of ending the war in Ukraine. How they will be realized and what interest in Ukraine is - the main question, which does not always depend on Ukraine itself . . . It is important to remember that some are participants in the war and others determine its results. Whether or not we want, but Ukraine has no chance of stopping it on its own and winning it.

No, I'm not betrayal, I am an economist, an analyst with military education (one of the four). And war is first and foremost an economy (the resources you use for war and the result that you can get from victory). Our leaders say that "they never do economy, they are engaged in war. " Well. Others are engaged in the economy. And from these others, Ukraine today is a critical resourceful resource for the continuation of defense, not to mention offensive actions. We even cannot provide our own OPC.

Here is the quote of Minister of Stratroom Kamyshin: "Ukraine's production capabilities three times exceed the budget for the purchase of weapons. " The military says negotiations are on the battlefield. And our battlefield is critical of US military assistance. So the United States will determine the scenarios and the result. And this result is already described whether we want or not. A year ago, Rand's private reconnaissance corporation described the main scenario.

I would like to remind you that Rand is an American Thinktank, which performs the functions of a strategic research center that operates to the request of the US Government, their armed forces and related organizations. Reminder 2: In Ukraine, the government and there is no understanding of the importance of working with Thinktanks (without our mind, we have been living a stranger for 33 years).

What they say: the scenarios of the end of the war have long been known (and also described in the document). It is the last scenario that is basic for the United States today, given the text. Consultations are underway. The question of which configuration will be reached the formula of the truce. It does not matter to the United States, which Ukraine won or does not conquer. The control over the situation and its benefits (!) "Control" - in this formula is key.

And this formula can be controlled very effectively by this formula. As? … A little more than 12 years ago, when I studied on the same program in Washington, my colleagues and I went to a basketball tournament in New York… What I will tell you, for my cold attitude to this sport, I enjoyed this show. I do not remember the name of the teams, but I remember that the first was in the highest league - a top team and the second is much weaker.

It would seem that the result was obvious before the match. But… The top team put a second syllable (!). From the first minutes he began to lose. After a short break, the composition was strengthened. Then the top began to lead. Break. Again introduced weaker players. The teams went into the point without a clear leader. The intrigue is stored the whole match, and the whole arena was in adrenaline. But in the last minutes, the composition of the top team was strengthened, and it won.

It really was a striking example of a managed result. …… and in Ukraine. We all know about hundreds of thousands of military equipment in American warehouses, tens of thousands of aircraft, helicopters, tanks, armored personnel carriers. Why not give Ukraine? The war would be over for a long time, and Ukrainian tanks would be in the Kremlin! What about intrigue? In fact, the reason is different.

States are a global player, and they are used to defining the configuration of the arrangements and architecture of the future security system. They are extremely disadvantageous to each party, but it is advantageous for them to keep control over the situation, which means that each party of the conflict with all the consequences that follow. As I wrote above, Ukraine needs to adopt a number of conditions: are Ukrainians ready for this format? Question.

The Ukrainian authorities, which are based on decision -making, on social surveys, is convinced that not: instead of a team game with Americans, Ukraine blackmails the event that in the absence of military assistance, Russian tanks will be in Warsaw and Berlin (!). This does not fit into understanding the global player (USA) of the subordination system. And we began to study in the summer of 2023 - to limit the volume of military assistance, and financially.

So, despite the fact that the US is a global player and defines the format of the future new world order, Ukraine is confused here under his feet and tries to overcome everyone. Yes, in March 2022 we succeeded, 72 hours turned into 2 years of war. Yes, the US has already received a benefit.

But they can't understand why in their chessboard random pawns are confused under their feet and does not accept the rules of the game? Frankly speaking, at a few high meetings in Washington heard severe annoyance in Ukraine. And it plays against us. And instead of starting to discuss the configuration of the truce and honestly speak with its citizens, despite the ratings, Ukraine is engaged in amateur activity. I repeat my forecast, given last year: which? Which they can agree.