Will Russia attack Chernihiv: how many troops are there in Russia and whether a real threat

On May 27, Russian troops attacked 10 villages in three border communities. UAV explosives were dumped, FPV drones were used, and mortars and artillery were fired. “We capture military presence along the entire border. That is, they keep in tension and hammer our combat units so that we do not transfer (units - ed. ) To the hotter areas of the front, ”the Misnyk said on the broadcast of the telephone.

  According to military expert Oleg Zhdanov, Russian troops have been present at the border with Chernihiv region since the beginning of 2024 to cover their own state border. The most stable is the Bryansk region, where 10-11 thousand Russian soldiers are concentrated, which did not change their numbers. In the Kursk region, Russia has increased the group, which prompted Ukraine to start an offensive operation in the territory on the basis of intelligence.

Instead, in the Belgorod region, Russian troops were ahead of Ukraine, starting an attack on the Kharkiv region, where the forces of Ukraine's defense conducted a defense operation. In the Bryansk region, the enemy's activity is limited to sabotage and intelligence, in particular with the participation of the 22nd detachment of the special unit of the Russian Federation. Ukraine is carrying out counter -prisoner work to prevent the penetration of hostile groups.

According to the expert, the situation in the Bryansk region remains relatively stable, without a significant increase in troops: “Today the situation there remains more or less stable and without much changes in the plan of troops. The main efforts of the Russian troops are concentrated in the Kursk and Belgorod regions where active fighting is underway.

Three Russian border regions - Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk - are included in the area of ​​responsibility of the Russian group "North", which is formed under the command of the Leningrad Military District, ”the expert said. The total number of "North" group is 125 thousand people. The main purpose of Russia, according to the expert, is to create a buffer zone with a depth of 15-20 km along the Ukrainian border.

According to military expert Dmitry Snegirev, there are currently no data that would testify to the preparation of the Russian command for a full -scale invasion of Belarus into the territory of Chernihiv region. There are no among these signs of preparation for the offensive, such as the deployment of field camps, medical institutions, the accumulation of ammunition and fuel and lubricants. There are also enough Russian troops in Belarus to qualify them as a contingent invasion.

The main threat, according to Snegirev, is the use of three aviation bases of Belarus for operations of the CCS of the Russian Federation or launch of drones towards Ukraine, including Chernihiv region. Dmitry Snegirev outlined another potential force at the Wagner border PEC, based in Belarus. Its number is estimated at 2. 5-3 thousand people. "It is enough to provoke on the border, but not enough to create the preconditions even for the tactical nature of success," the expert said.

Oleg Zhdanov believes that deep operational promotion of Russian troops, for example, 100-150 km for the purpose of capturing Chernihiv, is unlikely due to insufficient number of troops. The expert emphasized that much more forces are needed for the big city, such as Kharkiv. "For example, to surround a million Kharkiv, it takes at least half a million troops to siege it and then start a storm of the city," the military observer said.