Lived was the Minister of Defense, or how to organize Vargeima and what they are useful for real war

He believed that a deep analytical Vargeim was needed to solve this problem, so he described his problem with the well -known developer of Vargeim, who gladly accepted the call. In addition, the Minister of Defense set the same task for his subordinates who addressed their own employees. In the end, the challenge was accepted by a "humble servant", armed with a small budget and freedom to develop his own approach to the task described by the Minister.

The well -known developer of military games has conducted them for many years and was convinced of his ability to accomplish the task. So he sat down at the table and developed a plan. He will develop Vargeim, to which he will invite all the best military strategists. Having indicated on the calendar the date of the war game, he began planning. Initially, he announced the event of all the relevant agencies to ensure that their best employees were involved. Then he started developing.

For many years, he knew such military strategies, he knew exactly how to approach the task. Players will be divided into teams that create their action plans. The "blue" team would develop plans for our side, and the "red" team consisting of all the best experts in the field of intelligence would develop plans for the enemy who would accurately reflect the real approach of our enemies.

Then a confrontation between these plans will consider a team of experts involved in several agencies and interested organizations that have experience in such issues. After that, the famous developer of Vargeims began to organize a successful military game. He reserved the best place for the event at all the required levels of classification. His staff learned to record the relevant game events and conversations in their records.

He developed the process of interaction of teams, identified appropriate restrictions, and described the opportunities and dispositions for both parties, using the latest defense planning scenarios and operational plans. After all, the day of the event came. He went perfectly. All players used their best knowledge and experience in developing plans, and judges made decisions as impartially as possible.

At the end of the event, all participants reported to their agencies about how well the military game was held and how much they learned how much they learned. Those who have never participated in Vargeims have been convinced of the incredible efficiency of the method that immerses the players into the problem and allows them to think deeply with their colleagues.

In the following days after the event, the famous developer of Vargeimov, along with his team, worked on the report for the Minister of Defense. This report explained how the game was held, who participated in it and how effective it was. Then it told about the course of the event and concluded that the American side did not have the strength to effectively fight the enemy at the moment. In the real world, the US military will need much more forces.

These results for a while have become a dominant narrative for the community. In the end, they gained so popular that the famous military game developer was even invited to Congress to acquaint congressmen with the game and its results. Of course, the awareness of the weakness of the American armed forces before the potential enemy has suddenly caught and aroused the debate on how the armed forces should be developed.

The budgets were revised, programs have changed, and defense analysts have switched to discussing the deplorable state of the Armed Forces. Meanwhile, the modest servant worked quietly. He did not adhere to any schedules and terms. At first he did not even agree to spend a military game. When he was asked to prepare the research plan, he threw a document describing how he would approach the problem. The document devoid of any specifics was mostly ignored and left alone with his work.

In the initial stages of his research, our humble servant did not spend time thinking about military games. Instead, he used the budget existing to collect a team of researchers consisting of several retired combat veterans, planning professionals, commercial game developer, research methodologist and several analysts from various fields of knowledge. He then instructed this team to conduct fundamental research on topics about the task.

First, they appreciated some of the new tactical concepts that gave the local population the opportunity to fight the guerrilla struggle against the "red" forces. Therefore, the team developed a rigidly regulated tactical military game borrowed from an existing commercial project. They then invited several tactical fighting experts from the relevant geographical command to evaluate the project in one day. These experts gave some recommendations and offered changes.

With the updated project of Vargeim, the team has played some possible options using different weapons systems in different terrain. So the team was able to explain in detail why the idea would not work. It was the first report created by our "modest servant"; Its preparation took about a month from the beginning of the project. Further, our humble servant instructed his team to develop an analysis of the region.

The literature review revealed that the current operational plans and planning scenarios have been created on the basis of regional cards made several decades earlier. Therefore, the team has done a study research to understand the consequences of this for maneuverable forces and the possibility of infrastructure to transfer forces.

The study revealed that human activity in the region has significantly changed the landscape, and it turned out that these changes could affect the current planning ideas. This is how a new round of work began to study this discovery and its consequences. One of the problems that attracted great attention was the inconsistency of the range of some weapons. Therefore, the team quickly conducted a study to study the consequences of this difference.

The following efforts were directed to develop a clear understanding of how these systems are used and unfolded. As a result, it turned out that the difference in the range of action is not important due to the methods of application and number of systems themselves. The team then switched attention to the macro-tactical study of the impact of the area on the available deployment plans.

Our modest servant again turned to the available library of commercial military games to quickly develop his own rigidly regulated project project. This project was once again checked by external experts and played inside the company. After a dozen iterations of the game, it turned out that changes in the terrain that have taken place over decades from the moment of creation of the output cards have made the current regional defense plans incapable.

Yes, our humble servant made a rather controversial decision to completely abandon the available operational plans and planning scenarios. It happened about three months after the project began. But since the team of this little man had two experienced war veterans and planners, he instructed them to develop a completely new approach to the defense of the region.

After a few weeks of discussions, disputes and teeth, the team developed a completely new concept of the use of forces in the event of an enemy attack. This concept was much different from ideas. The team was tasked with using only a new concept. They conducted a few more auxiliary research to make sure all the prerequisites for the new plan are clear and taken into account.

The decision to move forward, following only a new idea, did not immediately accept positively, since it is really risky because it was really risky. However, the servant was quite convinced of the failure of these structures and continued to act. At this stage of the project, the team accumulated considerable experience and auxiliary research could be carried out much faster. But in order to study a new plan for the use of forces, the team again turned to rigidly regulated military games.

To study the prompt consequences of the new idea at the highest level, the team designer again adapted a commercial desktop strategy. For several weeks, it took to check the system with experts and agree on how the game simulates fighting. Again, within a few weeks, the game was held within the organization, this time with several invited observers. The game was spent about fifteen times to provide the opportunity to study and study different alternatives.

At the end of the prompt assessment, they determined that the idea of ​​using new forces is viable, but has a short shelf life because of the presence of "red" powerful air defense systems. Yes, everything depended on the destruction of these defense systems for a certain period of time. However, existing studies on determining these time limits have shown that systems live much longer than "blue" forces deployed according to the new structure.

Yes, your modest servant focused on the careful study of these defense systems. It so happened that the command was also interested in this problem. So partnership formed. The Servant's team had to help command to study the problem of air defense systems, provided that they would be allowed to do so in the context of a new approach to the use of forces.

The partnership turned out to be fruitful: the team was able to demonstrate that with the help of a brand new approach, you can cope with the enemy's defense systems so that the innovative idea of ​​using forces operate in full. The latest question to consider was logistical feasibility and stability of a new approach. They involved mobilization and logistics experts who helped to make an idea of ​​the restrictions and capabilities of existing infrastructure.

Their conclusions were taken into account when developing a new approach. As a result of these studies conducted by our humble servant, the operational plan was changed taking into account the new team approach to work. If you are familiar with this process, then you understand that this is really a significant achievement. The final report showed the Minister of Defense as a problem that was concerned can be solved by existing forces and within a short time.

It also discussed how the approach limits the potential of escalation and provides retreat. All the research was conducted in the same period of time and for the same amount as another military game. Then the servants were instructed to tell other Vargeim's developers about their approach to military games to stimulate them to take over a new approach.

The famous suppliers of Vargeims have stated that, although its approach may be a good, a balance between an innovative approach and a more traditional style of military games with events. After dissolving the initial team, the number of other developers using a new approach was zero. Other Vargeimov suppliers have stated that they were not ready to conduct a full cycle of research. I suggest you, dear reader, think about this story.

Which approach would you prefer the place of the person who makes the decision? This is a serious question because, although the story above is completely fictional, everything happened almost exactly as described. Military Games providers continue to plan measures rather than analytical research. The Ministry of Defense still resists the creation of special teams for the development of military games.

Yet, the effectiveness of the results of these two approaches is obvious, and the history, described above, is not the only one. Military games as planning events are a fun activity, and most of those who visit them go convinced that they have learned a lot. However, these activities in the style of measures do not give virtually nothing about further actions, innovation or useful answers.

Moreover, they often create negative impressions and enhance existing prejudices due to the lack of any fundamental or auxiliary research. Nevertheless, the Vargeim's suppliers continue to carry them out to the detriment of more reliable research reports, which include small, focused games in a wider context of research. Changes are still resisting.

It is unclear whether this is due to distrust of new ideas, or the suppliers lack the necessary experience or the desire to develop it in such research. Regardless of this, a change in the paradigm in the Vargeimer community is needed. At the same time, it is necessary to rethink what means to be able to develop and carry out Vargeima in an analytical sense. This will require a change in the competence of those who claim the role of Vargeim's suppliers.

The process of teaching the developers of Vargeims should also undergo significant changes: people who are allergic to formal approaches or commercial Vargeim libraries should not be applied. But the changes are not limited to the Vargeimer community. The development of expertise within special teams that can apply many methods and approaches to complex issues, is not just desirable, it is necessary.

The current admiration for the idea that machine learning algorithms or simplified campaign models can cope with our real complex problems is unlikely to be successful. However, there are some reasons for hope. The ideas presented above in the alternative approach to the use of Vargeim in analytical studies are supported by the US Department of Defense and the Vargeaming Community.

The influence of the combined approach on planning and the idea of ​​the theaters of combat in which we are now involved is not gone unnoticed. What awaits us in the future is unknown, but the process is already going, overcoming serious obstacles and difficulties. John Compton is a senior analyst and military expert in the Minister of Defense. It has a doctoral degree in the field of formal research methods and world policy.