Putin believes that wins the war by delaying hostilities for an indefinite time - isw

According to ISW estimates, any effort to persuade Ukraine to negotiate with Russia will only weaken Kiev and encourage further Russian aggression in Ukraine and beyond. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that he will be able to win the war for exhaustion if he delayed hostilities in Ukraine for a indefinite time. This is stated in the report of the American Institute of War Study (ISW) for July 2, 2024.

"Putin probably believes that Russia can delay the war for indefinite time and win the war for exhaustion if it can achieve Ukraine's refusal to decisive international support," the report reads. According to analysts, the slow but stable victories of Russia on the battlefield since the end of 2023, reinforce this assessment of Putin and stimulate him to avoid any real cease cessation of fire that would put an end to the war.

"The freezing of the current demarcation line in Ukraine will provide Russia with a prompt and strategically important Ukrainian territory, from which it will be able to start a new aggression, having an experienced army and a restored defense-industrial base,"-said in ISW. In addition, the Kremlin is leading an enhanced information campaign aimed at pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia on Russian conditions.

"Any Russian, Western, or other efforts to persuade Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, only weaken Ukraine and encourage further Russian aggression in Ukraine and abroad," analysts explained. ISW explained that the request of Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban to cease fire can support the wider Kremlin strategic message, which aims to create an operational pause for Russia or to convince international partners to abandon Ukraine.

"According to ISW estimates, the ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely to hold back further Russian aggression on the current lines and only give Russia critical time to restore its forces and prepare for future aggression against Ukraine," the American Institute for War Study emphasized. We will remind, in the report for July 1 the analysts of ISW reported that the Russian Federation will use the chairmanship in the UN Security Council to demonstrate force.