Demography Laws: Putin may soon face a shortage of recruits - isw

Yes, the ISW is convinced that the Russian conscription system forms approximately 260,000 new soldiers every year, which is called in two waves. The combination of the pre -war set into the army, the conscription, which is partially based on reservists, and autumn partial mobilization, probably significantly reduced the existing reserve contingent in age groups and with experience that is suitable for replacement of losses in combat units with the advanced.

"Putin will have to consider the expansion of the conscript service in order to attract a large proportion of young Russian men against their will every year. But demographic indicators do not contribute to this approach," the ISW report reads. Analysts estimated that about 800,000 young people in Russia are 18 years old.

Expanding the conscription for military service of more than 260,000 people risks not only taking young people with physical data that is unusable to the front, but also to start extraction of too many young people from the Russian economy, which Putin simultaneously tries to transfer to military rails. "The ghost of infinite Russian living power is a myth.

Putin was already forced to make a difficult and unpay -choice to compensate for the horrible losses that his war caused the Russian military, and he will face the same difficult choice in 2023 if he is died in his determination Use military force to impose its will to Ukraine and the West, " - said American analysts. However, ISW is convinced that Putin will still go to such measures and try to increase the Russian mobilization reserve.

However, expenditures for Russia will grow rapidly and affect the country's economy. We will remind, on February 25 in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia has transferred under Bakhmut additional detachments of "Kadyrov" to restrain the desertion and sabotage of mobilized. In Chechnya, according to the Ukrainian command, forced mobilization continues.

On February 22, it became known that Russian invaders in the territory of "LNR" began to greatly simplify and accelerate the forced mobilization of civilians. Earlier, on February 16, Mariupol City Hall was told that the first mobilized residents of the city had already gone to the front.