Putin's escalation is approaching: the response of the event to the war in Ukraine plays the hand of the Russian Federation - NYT

According to expert Hanna Notte, as the situation with Western military support of Ukraine is unclear, the next few months give the Kremlin a window of opportunity to carry out new offensive actions. A week after the terrorist attack in Moscow, the Kremlin continues to argue that Ukraine is involved in the event, which indicates Putin's desire to increase tension on the front. About it writes an expert on Russian foreign and security policy Hannah Notte in the column of The New York Times.

According to her, Putin planned to increase the tension on the Ukrainian front and increase the number of air bombing in the cities of Ukraine. This would demonstrate to ordinary Russian citizens that those who harm their interests will be punished. "It would also be distinguished from the inability of the security authorities to prevent attack and may have even attracted more support for the war," Notte writes.

According to her opinion, Putin was ready to increase the pressure on Ukraine both on the front and in the rear, even without a terrorist attack in Moscow. In particular, this was facilitated by his re -election. The expert noted that the Russian Armed Forces have both material and numerical advantages over the Ukrainian military.

The situation is also favorable for the Russian Federation in the temporal aspect: given the prolonged uncertainty about Western military support from Kiev, the next few months provide Moscow unique opportunities for new offensive operations. Simultaneously with the activation on the front in Ukraine, Putin also showed activity in the international arena.

This is evidenced by the rejection of negotiations with the US on the prevention of nuclear weapons, as well as the unwillingness to solve other international problems. According to the source, one of the reasons for such "bold behavior of the Russian Federation" was the weak reaction of the event. For example, even two years since the beginning of a large -scale war in Europe, there are still "preparing for decisive action. " Assistance aimed at Ukraine is still not quite active.