How many have lost Ukrainian business and the state because of the full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation

How to determine the specific level of these losses? Co-author: Simeon Dyankov-Director of the Group of Researchers from the Financial Markets of the London School of Economics, Alfa-Bank Abstract Ukraine will determine the trajectory of the restoration of the Ukrainian economy, together with significant changes in human capital due to loss of lives and a multimillion-dollar wave of refugees. Systemal loss assessment is still a call.

We offer a variant of such an assessment using a branch approach from below, which identifies the exclusion of 7. 5% of corporate assets from the potential issue from the beginning of the war. The video of the day was made several attempts to evaluate the loss of physical assets through the war in Ukraine. The most famous attempt is the Russia project, which is based on the analysis of the micro-level on the basis of statements submitted by Ukrainian households.

As of September 1, 2022, this project estimated the loss of physical infrastructure of $ 113. 5 billion, which exceeds half of the pre -war GDP of Ukraine. Most of these losses concerns housing ($ 48 billion) and transport infrastructure ($ 35 billion), and corporate assets are estimated at more .

In expanding this approach, the ownership of Ukraine was also carried out by the Government of Ukraine in cooperation with international financial institutions under the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment project. As of June 1, 2022, this project estimated the total loss of physical infrastructure in the amount of $ 97 billion. However, each approach to assessment has its own defects.

One of the problems is to determine the market value of productive assets in stormy time, especially for private business, which is the basis of economy in Ukraine. For example, how do you consider revenue losses and temporary stops of production processes? These circumstances should reduce the value of assets when estimating their current value.

On the contrary, should a retrospective approach be applied and certain approximations at carrying value? In this column, we will test a new approach to measuring the military losses of the Ukrainian corporate sector, except for the services sectors, through the assessment of production capacity losses.

This assessment also takes into account the irreversibly lost productive assets (destroyed and damaged to non -renewable levels) and potentially renewable (assets in regions occupied by Russian troops and/or damaged assets that can be repaired). Such an assessment should be useful for further evaluation of the economic recovery trajectory, taking into account the actual events for the liberation of the territory of Ukraine and the post -war reconstruction.

It is important to note that we only evaluate those military losses that occurred from February 2022 to September 1, 2022. Such an assessment can be applied to assets lost through hostile and illegal seizure of Ukrainian territories in 2014-2015, but for reasons of the more simplified application of our approach, we limit the analysis of the events of 2022. The reinforcement of Ukraine has been a topic of many analytical works published earlier.