Trap for Russia: Oil prices are reduced, production is falling -

For example, the income of the Russian Federation from oil tax fell almost a quarter in February compared to the same period of 2024, reports Bloomberg, referring to the published data of the Ministry of Finance about the revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation. This was the result of reducing oil production on high -tax protects. Thus, the federal budget revenues decreased by about 23% to 610 billion rubles ($ 6. 8 billion).

For the first time in a year, the Russian government will start selling currency from the National Welfare Fund for the first time in almost a year and a half to compensate for the failure of the oil and gas revenues of the budget, which in February and March decreased by almost 20%. From April 7 to May 12, the Russian Ministry of Finance will sell from the FNB yuan and gold for 35. 9 billion rubles, or 1. 6 billion rubles a day, follows from the release of the department.

The Ministry of Finance launches such operations for the first time in January 2024. The authorities are forced to climb into the "Cubes", since the cost of Russian oil Urals has fallen below $ 60 per barrel - the prices of the budget rule. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in March the barrel Urals was sold abroad on average $ 58. 99, which is record cheap from the summer of 2023. Despite the fact that in the budgetary the costs set the value of $ 69. 7.

In addition, it was signs and reducing the volume of oil production, the Ministry of Finance itself in the release. Russia is now pumping about 9 million barrels a day, although it was 10 million and above a year ago. As a result: in March, the oil and gas revenues of the budget decreased by 17%, and as a result of the first quarter - by 10%. The Ministry of Finance itself has previously warned that it could not worry up to 2 trillion rubles of raw rent due to the situation in the oil market.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has made the largest reduction in oil prices over the past two years, reducing the cost of its key brand Arab Light by $ 2. 30 per barrel for Asian buyers. This happened a few days after OPEC+ shock solution+ sharply increase oil production by 400,000 barrels a day, Bloomberg reports.

Moreover, Trump's Tariffs also caused a tremendous blow at global oil prices, which have fallen at once by $ 10 less than a day - from $ 75 to $ 65, which was the lowest in more than three years. For Russia, whose budget depends directly on the world oil prices, these news is a real economic blow. Earlier, Trump demanded from OPEC+ to reduce the price of oil, which, as he claimed, it is necessary to reduce inflation and increase pressure on Russia to help stop the war with Ukraine.

Oil in London has already fallen below $ 65, which is a minimum in the last four years. For comparison, the budget of Russia in 2024-2025 was based on the price of oil above $ 70, and each loss of the dollar from Barrel-minus billions of rubles to the budget. At the same time, Saudi Arabia continues to plan a gradual increase in supply, which creates risks to a long collapse of prices. Russia is a country whose economy is critical of oil and gas exports.

These income directly funds military expenditures, including the war against Ukraine. In the context of budget deficits, cheap oil can disrupt the Kremlin's plans to continue the military campaign. If the fall in prices continues, Moscow will be in a situation where it will have to reduce military expenses, or print rubles, accelerating inflation. In any case, it is an economic catastrophe, which will eventually hit the citizens of Russia.

According to Bloomberg, an unexpected increase in production and a decrease in prices occurred against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump, who demanded from OPEC+ to reduce the price of oil to reduce inflation and increase pressure on Russia. This decision beats simultaneously in two directions: it reduces the income of the Russian Federation from the export of hydrocarbons and deprives Moscow the main source of financing of war.

It should be noted that on January 24, US President Donald Trump appealed to OPEC member states and urged them to increase oil production. So the price of fuel will fall, it will weaken the Russian Federation and help to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war faster, the American politician said. Also, some OPEC and OPEC member states voluntarily adjust the volume of oil production, indicated on the oil exporters. The correction has occurred or will occur in the direction of decreased production.