Mobilization and offensive in July: what to expect from the Russian Federation after hitting the airfields

A simple blow to drones, even very large - not that scale. Attempting to beat Balianism in the center of Kiev - perhaps, but without the result it will be "not that". "Not that" from the point of view of the population that will perceive the event not even as a slap, but as a manifestation of the weakness of the "great state". In Russian politics (since the Moscow kingdom), the growth of such moods is unpleasant and dangerous for the king. We need to come up with something.

"Not that" and from the point of view of the general situation in the war and the need to demonstrate Russian advantage. That is, to substantiate their inflated requirements for negotiations and a peace process. In the second option, the answer is already an increase in pressure on the front (which does not abolish attempts to destroy the Ukrainian leadership with rocket attacks). But the pace of the offensive of the Russian Federation is not so very breakthrough.

Clearly not enough for the "second army of the world". And even if the summer campaign is successful, the result will be closer to the fall. And by the fall of the population it is necessary to feed a fairy tale. In addition, against the background of heavy losses (which will now pay attention). And here, given the Putin's KGBShne past, I see two components. The first is to catch fear. That is, come up with a story about a terrorist threat. Start looking for summer houses from the container.

Of course, with the arrests of their owners. Well, come up with some alleged Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure. By analogy with the explosions of houses in front of the second Chechen. The Russian must be afraid and should, conditionally, ask the king to protect by any methods. The second stage is the announcement of mobilization "at the request of the workers". Here, on the one hand, there will be a game in the Patriotic War in propaganda.

On the other hand, resolving the issue of additional meat for attempts to break through Ukrainian defense. And finally, the budget savings on the lifting for the conclusion of the contract. From MO money, it is likely to pay. But it is 400 thousand out of 3. 5 . . . 4 million rubles. The rest of the federation was paid extra. This money will save. After all, mobilization is not a contract. So, in June, you can expect the beginning of mobilization in Russia.

The second, but not the main thing is to find a kapa-gift. On the one hand, Belousov could theoretically become so, but he can stay. How not a auditor, cleaned a number of schemes. Therefore, of course, it does not like some of the old frames in Mo. But he is supported by Chemezov and Patrushev. Therefore, the resignation of the minister is not 100% likelihood. But stripping a number of generals is possible. Especially if Belousov stands - he will be a supporter of a public pilgrim.

So will release a place for his presenters. The supporters of the same pilgrim will be the people of Phmezov. It is "Rostech" that will be entrusted with the restoration of strategic aviation. And it's big, very big money. Moreover, in view of the timing of the development and construction of new aircraft, money without obligations to show the result at the end of the year. At the same time, I repeat, I do not cancel the air strikes of the Russian Federation.