A peaceful plan that works: when Putin is unable to fight

Ukraine, since the beginning of the war, should build a diplomatic track, which provides for the possibility of peace for fulfilling certain conditions, says analyst Yuri Bogdanov and names the reasons that should take away the desire or the ability to fight in Russia. About "peace plans", diplomacy and all. This politicization of the diplomatic track was a little tired.

Because Ukraine, as a state, should build a diplomatic track since the beginning of the war, which provides for the possibility of peace for certain conditions. Why? In particular, in order to satisfy the key request of our partners in the US and in Europe. Because there are still logical fears of the Third World, Chaos in Russia, or the Russian Federation under China. There is also a reluctance that Russian resources leave the market.

Because it is believed that the disappearance from the market of Russian oil, metals or fertilizers will be a global problem. And this is true. Therefore, the concept of "non -tumultting" of Russia lives. On the other hand, Ukraine and Europe do not want to defeat Ukraine. If you clarify the parameters of "default", they have about the following appearance: Ukraine should not disappear, lose most of its territory, turn into a satellite of Russia.

That is, "non -tumultuous" of Ukraine is its existence as an independent and capable state, but the issue of borders or alliances is secondary. As a result, this war may not have winners at all. As after the First World War, when all were involved very soon in a state of deep social, economic and political crisis. Accordingly, in such a form of thinking, the topic of the need to negotiate a peace is coming constantly.

Especially when the main tension center has long shifted to the east, where there is a fierce competition around Southeast Asia (out of its nearly 700 million population). Vladimir Putin uses this strategic uncertainty as he can. His task is to survive our ability to fight. Even if his policy in the future has been leading Russia to a catastrophe (and it leads). Even if she made so that in 2. 5 years she practically destroyed the entire accumulated stock of the USSR (and it destroyed).

He hopes to endure us. We should not allow this. Either waiting for him to fall or jumped into negotiations for the best situation. Therefore, if the topic of negotiations is alive in the Western establishment, then it is important for us to "form" our position. To record on paper important postulates of potential peace. Strengthen potential negotiation positions. In particular, in the context of the restoration of a country without which any result of the war will be delayed.

The logic "Give us weapons so we can negotiate on adequate conditions" - adequate. Yes, we do not give up negotiations, but give us the opportunity to be ready for them. The same is regarding the requirement of pressure on the economy of the Russian Federation. For all the unobstructed sanctions, the pressure has already affected the Russian economy, which is now extremely overheated. The crisis of the Russian economy is also a step towards just peace.

The position promoted by Ukraine and our partners, where the basic compulsory conditions for the start of negotiations (for example, the return of the Zaporizhzhya NPP or guaranteeing the safety of Ukrainian food exports) were gradually formed. Yes, I also really want the event to give us literally all possible weapons, including winged missiles, hundreds of pilot aircraft and all. To trample Russia in a few weeks-moons. And to make human casualties minimized.

But it is necessary to work with what is - in military, diplomatic, economic, legal directions. With understanding of the logic of our partners, because there will be no others. Support for pro -Ukrainian coalition (in particular thanks to the demonstration of our diplomatic adequacy), support for sanctions, pressure on the Russian economy, strikes of long -range weapons, long -term guarantees can lead to the Kremlin no longer be able to continue the war.

Or will consider further fighting a critical threat to their own existence. Only this will force Putin or his successor to look for peace on Ukrainian conditions or through compromise decisions acceptable for Ukraine. And so. I thank our diplomats for their conscientious and heroic work. They do more than we could dream. Thank you. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position. The author is responsible for published data in the "Thought" section.