The "creeping" offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Toretsky direction: in ISW ​​called the purpose of the Russians (maps)

American analysts believe that Russian attacks west and southwest of Avdiivka, as well as the promotion to the Konstantinovka-Pokrovsk highway, indicate that the Russian forces are currently aimed at promoting the west to Pokrovsk. This may be part of a narrower offensive surgery to capture Konstantinovka from the East.

Russian troops continue to conduct offensive operations in the Toretsky direction since their activation on June 18, but the likelihood of significant success in the area remains low. This is evidenced by the analysts of the American Institute for War Study (ISW) of June 27. Analysts say that since the beginning of the intensification of hostilities, the Russian forces have increased their attacks in the Toretsky direction, located southwest from the time ravine and northeast of Avdiivka.

However, they have only attracted limited forces, giving the advantage of gradual promotion through consecutive assaults, not rapid and significant maneuvers. This indicates that the Russian forces continue to adhere to the tactics of "creeping offensive". During the intensification of fighting, the Russian forces mainly carried out frontal infantry attacks on small settlements south and east of Toretsk.

So far, no significant mechanized attack in the area has been recorded, and Russian troops have not achieved noticeable tactical success. Analysts say that Russian forces are likely to try to take advantage of the fact that the restoration of offensive operations in the north of the Kharkiv region has drawn Ukrainian forces from other areas of the front. This should contribute to Russia's success in the key areas of the front, especially in the Donetsk region.

However, instead of promoting in the Pokrovsky direction or capture of the time ravine, the Russian forces have intensified actions on the previously inactive area of ​​the front. The promotion of Russian troops at the time of Yar and northwest of Avdiivka without similar success in the Toretsky direction increases the risk of creating a Ukrainian speech in this area.

Such a speech gives the Ukrainian troops the opportunity to fire on the rear of Russian troops, increasing their vulnerability to counterattack. Russian offensive operations in the Toretsk area are likely to reduce the threat that comes from this Ukrainian speech, while they continue to succeed in the directions of Avdiivka and the time of Yar.

ISW analysts believe that the Russian military command does not consider the possibility of conducting a large -scale operation to promote to Konstantinovka in several directions. Konstantinovka is a strategically important city, and Russian forces have long sought to capture it as part of the defense zone in the Donetsk region. However, despite the tactical successes northwest of Avdiivka in April 2024, further promotion slowed.

Russian offenses that last west and southwest of Avdiivka, as well as the promotion to the T0504 highway (Konstantinovka-Pokrovsk) indicate that the Russian forces are currently aimed at promoting west to Pokrovsk. This may be part of a narrower offensive surgery to capture Konstantinovka from the East.

Thus, the Russian forces can use operations in the Toretsky direction to support the intended offensive from the time ravine towards Konstantinovka or simply put pressure on the Ukrainian forces on a wider front in the Donetsk region, facilitating success in the directions of the time ravine and Avdiivka. ISW analysts say that the capture of Toretsk will require much more power than there is a Russian army in this direction.

The arrival of reinforcements in the area will testify to the intention of Russian troops to provide operations in the Toretsky direction of tactical significance. However, even if the Russian forces managed to capture Toretsk, further promotion would be complicated through open terrain and large water bodies in the north and northwest.

However, slow offensive transactions in the Toretsky direction correspond to the Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategy, according to which the Russian forces will be able to continue the gradual advancement for indefinite time, not allow Ukraine to carry out successful counter -offensive operations and win a war on exhaustion. Current rates of promotion of Russian troops suggest that they can pursue some prompt goals for many months, if not years.

Russian forces can be ready to carry out offensive operations for several months to capture Toretsk and promote in the direction of Konstantinovka. The Russian command probably hopes that the offensive pressure in the Toretsky direction will prevent the accumulation of Ukraine's personnel and resources necessary for successful counter -offensive operations. This goal can exceed any specific territorial tasks that Russian forces set in the area of ​​Toretsk.