As ATACMS destroys Russia's fleet and where the enemy prepares a landing - expert Pavel Lakichuk about the situation at sea

How quickly Crimea can be cut off from replenishment and return under the control of Ukraine - in the conversation of focus with the head of the security programs of the Center of Globalism "strategy XXI" Pavel Lakichuk. How are the last strikes in the Crimea that have caused the Armed Forces of Ukraine and how powerful they have become in the last few weeks? I don't think this is a matter of several weeks.

The Defense Forces of Ukraine consistently and for a long time conduct a strategy against the Crimea, the grouping of enemy troops and military logistics through Crimea to the south of Ukraine. If with military logistics is relatively clear, Crimea is a cumulative hub in this chain: in the north it has a narrow mouth of Chongar and Perekop, and in the east - the Kerch Strait, then cutting off these "tails", the peninsula is not necessary for anyone from the point of view of logistics.

But as for the troops group, the situation is somewhat different. From 2022 the Armed Forces have been trying to knock the enemy out of the Black Sea. These operations began almost immediately after a full -scale invasion. I would say that the first stage ended somewhere in 2023, when the enemy was forced to flee from the northwestern part of the Black Sea. His ships were shot after a whole complex of combined blows: rocket, drone, special forces at sea.

Then we forced the Russian fleet to go from Sevastopol. Part of the forces remains, in particular, in Donuzlav (near Evpatoria - Prime. However, the fleet does not play a key role in a closed pool. Aviation is important. Although part of the sea is not controlled by the Russians, they continue to control the airspace above this water area. And mainly with aerodrome aviation, which is called Crimea on this "land aircraft carrier".

Strokes on the Russian airfield on the Crimean peninsula is the first task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Armed Forces). The results of the work contribute to our troops in the land direction and displace the Russians from the Ukrainian maritime trade routes. In order to neutralize the aerodromes of the enemy base, it is necessary to destroy his air defense system, which we do - arrives at pilots, towns, strategic nuclear forces. Combined attacks show high efficiency.

If we will close less than three tasks at one stroke, we will not get the advantage. In terms of the amount of means of damage, the enemy wins, so we have at the expense of creativity, tactical thinking with each blow to destroy more hostile capabilities.

What weapon did Ukraine use for operations in Crimea? Which one seems to have a significant impact on the placement of forces and the capabilities of Ukraine, ATACMS? Recently, one foreign edition was questioned: "Atacms is cool? Tell me what changed the receipt of ATACMS Ukraine? If not atacms that would be with Crimea?". No, it won't go. There is no one zonerwaffe that closes all our problems.

Only the combined use of forces and means of damage, the ones we have, with an understanding of the possibilities and necessary conditions for effective use of each type of weapon, gives its result. In order to hit the naval bases and airfield, the corridor in the enemy's air defense first breaks. And even such blows are combined. One Storm Shadow or Atacms will not break it. First you need to muffle or set the radar system. That is, the MiG-29 or Su-27 fly, which run the AGM missiles.

In order not to affect the radar stations (radar), the Russians are forced to turn them off. And so close your eyes. And then she arrives on the launching installations of air defense missiles. Both Storm Shadow and ATACMS were organized good cotton.

After recent blows to Sevastopol, on Belbeck, when, as a result of the enemy air defense, the fragments of one of the missiles - it is most likely to have a zenith of "beech" or "torra" fell to the beach, the Crimeans began to discuss this issue lively on social networks. And such a thesis was: "Well, you know, we have relaxed in Crimea. Like, even when it arrives, it arrives exactly on a military object, and we take care of nothing, and here on the beach.

Agree, this is a high appreciation of our defense forces. No matter what drones or missiles we use, depending on the specific circumstances, they reach and destroy their goals. Of course, you can give examples of incredible luck that were in the Armed Forces. But every luck should be well prepared. For example, for the first time in the world, winged rockets, not anti -ship, were affected in Sevastopol Bay in Sevmorzavod, in particular, a submarine.

For Storm Shadow - a big asterisk to the side, or ATACMS. Nobody destroyed the Ukrainian ships with the Baltic Studies, there was no such idea. That is, you want to say that we are expanding the capabilities of the weapons we have provided? Certainly. The first of the drowning ships was not the cruiser "Moscow", before that in Berdyansk went under the water a large landing ship "Saratov". He kissed the "point-y". No one ever thought that it is possible. ATCMS kissed the Russian rocket launcher.

And if a large landing ship is a huge goal, then this corvette is small. To kiss exactly - you need to be able. So ours demonstrate both creative and skill. The combination of professional skills and creative thinking is our key to victory. Without these components, no technology will help.

How pain is painful to the Crimea? It is believed that if the Armed Forces manages to destroy logistics chains, then the army of the Russian Federation will not be able to exist on the peninsula, it will be forced to retreat, as once from Kherson. Under what conditions is this possible? It is likely that Crimea will be cut off from the mainland. In the end, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will remain nothing to give up. The wars of the past show what is quite possible.

But this is the prospect of far. In order to get to the Crimea, we still need to pass the south, where the enemy is powerfully strengthened. And it is worth watching what is happening in the lower Dnieper, what heavy and complex fights. I understand that everyone is now focused on the battles in the East, because there is the main one. The task is to stop the enemy, break his will to the offensive and take the initiative. Commander -in -Chief says this carefully.

Under certain conditions, we have the potential to change everything there. What are the forces of the enemy from the peninsula involved in operations in Donetsk and Kharkiv region? Crimea is a rear base and permanent dislocation points. The 810th Marine Corps, the 126th Brigade of the Coast Guard and Theodosian Regiment of the Airborne Troops are based. They fight in the south and east of Ukraine, suffer heavy losses.

Only the dead are taken to the Crimea - from the south to Sevastopol and Simferopol. And talking about the redeployment of certain units is too early. And as for the Marines, what is the Marines, if it is just an infantry. That's what you need to pay attention to, so it is to relocate ships from Novorossiysk to the Sea of ​​Azov. It is important. And not only because it seemed to someone that the ships that went to Azov began to shoot "caliber". There is no surprise. It was expected.

But in addition to the carriers of "calibers", large landing ships, at least to the Marpiv Battalion, went to Azov. They went because they cannot train with landing in Crimea - they will come sea drones and show them such a landing that will be hot. And somewhere in the area between Yaysk and Temryuk in the Krasnodar region it is possible. And since they continue training, so they plan surgery. Not as large -scale as they planned at the beginning, somewhere on the Black Sea.

Where exactly do they plan to plant a landing that trains on the Azov Sea? In the Russian Federation, prepared marines, which can be landed from the ship to the shore in combat, have long been gone. They were shot all, destroyed under Mariupol and in the Kherson region a year or two ago. We are talking about brigades from Vladivostok, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Baltic Sea. All of them in Ukraine suffer great losses.

And when I say that they are preparing for landing, according to the opportunity at the mouth of the Dnieper. The Russians also form the Dnieper flotilla, artillery boats, direct from the Caspian. Their purpose is domination on the Dnieper and landing on the right bank. But ours are also preparing. As? I liked the demonstration at the Odessa Security Forum of a new sea drone. It is not an alternative to Sea Baby or Magura. This is not a sea drone at all. It is most likely a river unmanned vehicle.

And where can it be used? Somewhere in the estuaries or in the dams of the Dnieper, to replace those, very courageous boats that provide the rear of our Marines. Therefore, apparently, the situation there goes to the climax on both sides. And it is not for nothing that the Russians strengthen the defense line in the north of the Crimea, equipped there from the shores. This indicates that they are not as confident in their victory as we think. You have mentioned recent start -ups from the Azov Sea.

It happened for the first time. Why did it happen? Because the Russians in black are dangerous. Neither in the Crimean area, nor on the landfills in the eastern part, on the external raid of Novorossiysk, Anapa, Tuapse. You will not call these areas safe. It is inconvenient to make launches from the bay, including the Cemezhskaya. Novorossiysk is also not suitable - it is used by a large Russian business, there is incredible traffic, the military is not happy there.

Therefore, the first reason is that no one wants to get the Storm Shadow. The second - the Russians are not sure of the accuracy of their ships, suddenly they will fall on their own. So only Azov remains relatively safe. It is surrounded by the territory of the Russian Federation and occupied territories. Before that, from the Azov Sea the distance for launch is smaller-a hundred and a half hundred kilometers. And this reduces the time for the Ukrainian side to intercept the rocket.

But for our strength, the distance for the lesion becomes smaller - it must also be taken into account. I hope sooner or later on these ships will fly. That is, Ukraine can control the space over the Azov Sea? Not so. We cannot control it yet. But in principle, it is possible. If the "cotton" of the air defense complexes in the area of ​​Berdyansk and Melitopol, then it is possible, it will mean-the corridor to the Azov Sea breaks.

The Institute of War Study states: Russia purposefully places military objects near civilians, how true is it? Crimea is crowded with military objects. And so it was always. Neither in Soviet times nor during occupation, it did not worry anyone. Ukraine is constantly warning of rocket danger through various means of communication, in particular, the media. How to warn yet? You open an alarm map - Crimea is constantly red.

And every Ukrainian journalist, every expert says: expensive Crimeans, countrymen, stay as far away from Russian military facilities, do not rest with the military. For those who come from Magadan to Crimea, it is definitely safer at the laptev sea. We say - no one listens. What is a school? Uchkuyivka is a Belbeck. How many airfields flew, and will be right. And from the Russians. What is loved? This is the Kacha Air. Bay tale? There is an 810 Marine Corps Brigade.

Fiolent? It has military bases with air defense and intelligence. Is it possible that the Russian army is deliberately covered by the backs of vacationers on the beach without warning of the danger? Certainly. Military generals consciously used it. The Russian authorities are indifferent to the population, and especially in the occupied territories. For the third time, the Ukrainian forces broke the air defense division at Cape Fiolent. Where did he move? To the 5th kilometer.

If anyone is from Sevastopol, I will explain, it is the largest fleeting for the whole of Sevastopol. If you hit the C-300, they will say-they kissed civilian. The fact that Putin is: "First we will put women, and behind our green men, and let them only try to shoot", bring to perfection. What do you think can change the situation in Crimea in the near future? There the situation is constantly changing. On the one hand, if you will not call one large naval base of Crimea.

The Sevastopol Fleet is already in another city. There are aerodromes. They are the main Ukrainian goals. I think, over time, planes, as well as Korobly, will have to relocate somewhere to the Yeysk, Primorsky-Akhtra. There is little left of the great logistics hub, which the Russians have created for ten years.

All scrap on Donuzlav, near Simferopol, in the north of Crimea, if you look at satellite images, disappeared - it was disposed of in the south of Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhya and Kherson directions. It is not possible to recover quickly. Crimea becomes an element of the logistics chain. Never stay in Crimea - they go through the Kerch Strait to Janka and north. So the task is to cut this link in the logistics chain.

Is it important to destroy the so -called Kerch Bridge now, what did the head of GUR Kirill Budanov again mention again? Relevant. So we say that he is critical of the enemy for logistics, then no - the Russian Federation most distracts through the Crimean ferry. The enemy uses both a vapor, a bridge, and courts, and air. So you need to approach comprehensively. It is not possible to cut completely, even if you destroy the bridge, because the paths are duplicated.