" "Small, fast, regionally limited, nothing big — Russia is too tied to Ukraine for that," Zolfrank noted. At the same time, the general reiterated previously published warnings that Russia could potentially launch a large-scale attack on the 32-nation alliance by 2029 if the current pace of rearmament continues. Despite the failure of Russia's campaign in Ukraine, Russia's air force retains significant combat power, and its strategic nuclear and missile forces "remain intact.
" As for the naval component, Zolfrank added, although the Black Sea Fleet suffered losses, other Russian fleets were not reduced. According to Zolfrank, the ground forces of Russia are suffering losses, but the leadership of the Russian Federation announces plans to increase the total number of troops to 1. 5 million people. He also noted that Russia has a sufficient number of main battle tanks for the hypothetical organization of a limited offensive in a short period of time.
However, the general did not specify whether the Kremlin has plans for such an offensive in the present. In general, Moscow's decision to attack NATO will depend on three factors: Russia's military might, its military achievements, and its leadership. "These three factors lead me to the conclusion that an attack by Russia is quite possible. Whether it will take place or not depends to a large extent on our own behavior," he added.
For its part, the Russian side announced the increase in NATO military activity near its borders and working out scenarios related to a possible blockade of the Kaliningrad region. Thus, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Oleksandr Hrushko said that during the exercises the alliance is working out actions that include the isolation of the Kaliningrad region. "During the alliance's exercises, scenarios such as blocking the Kaliningrad region are being worked out.
The region is being actively militarized and pumped with coalition forces and means," Hrushko said. According to him, in the current conditions, the prospects for a dialogue on reducing tensions are "extremely limited", as the NATO states allegedly do not show readiness to discuss de-escalation measures on an equal footing. At the same time, Hrushko added that Russia will use international legal and other mechanisms to protect its national interests.
Commenting on Moscow's statements, military journalist Stavros Atlamazoglu noted that Russian officials "ignore key cause-and-effect relationships. " He notes that the strengthening of NATO, including an increase in defense spending and combat readiness, was a reaction to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "Motivating countries to spend more on defense is not easy. It is especially difficult to do this in peacetime and in the absence of an obvious threat," he emphasized.
The journalist added that Moscow has considerable experience in conducting psychological operations and creating an information environment that justifies its steps. In this context, NATO's accusations of provoking a confrontation, in his opinion, can be used to further increase tensions between Russia and the Alliance.
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