When will Putin think about peace? Why January 2025 can become a turning point in the war

Trying to predict Putin's behavior, Blogger Roman Shrik sees a turning point in January 2025. It is then that in Russia will start a lack of money and resources, which will encourage the dictator to think about peace, I do not know when the war will end, but I can assume when it can start to end. In my considerations, I go to Putin's head. Because two are required for the arrangements, so until Putin is ready to negotiate, there is no point in talking about them. At this point, Putin is not needed.

His army continues to pave the roads of death in the Donbass, the area of ​​captured territories is increasing, the people are going to sign contracts, and the finances are enough for all. Yes, there is an Armed Forces surgery in the Kursk region, but it seems that Putin views it as something accidental and temporary. Now let's move in January 2025. In December, another billions of the National Academy of Sciences will be held in the budget hole in the budget.

In total, the FNB will decrease by $ 20-30 billion in the year, and another 20-30 will remain. That is, it will be enough by the end of 2025, and then you have to print. In warehouses with Soviet armored vehicles until the middle of 2025, a junk will be left. Yes, you can fight meat, arta and booth.

But meat is expensive, the potential participants of the program "Get a million rubles and drone in the head" - not an endless amount, but the second wave of forced mobilization does not want to carry out. With cabin after F-16, it can also become more difficult. That is, the soul requires the extension of the banquet, but money and resources for this banquet are already over. Their end is visible. With this in mind, I assume that in the early 2025, Putin will think seriously about negotiations.

You just do not need to confuse his permanent Clown Trindozh about "readiness" with real readiness. Well, keep in mind that this porridge will not boil, we already have to get used to that everything is slow. What will be the situation on the battlefield in the early 2025 - it is difficult to guess. And it is paramount. Who wins the US elections is still unknown. Not only the personality of the new president but also a schedule in both houses of Congress plays a role here.

But I think that any outcome of the US election will not be a complete disaster, given the international assistance programs for 2025. Depending on the election result, we will get weapons from Western partners either as in 2024 or less, but 2025 in any case we will last. That is, the situation on the front and the outcome of the US elections can strengthen or weaken our positions, as well as the desire to negotiate. Let's summarize.