To a real truce for another 6 months: why Putin is unprofitable and there is no point in stopping the war

I will remind here a very simple thing: a peaceful process (with some real conditions of end of the war that Ukraine can theoretically accept) exists only in the dreams of individual individuals and - perhaps, although not accurate - in the head of Trump.

The fact that Putin is hardly ready to accept the war on compromise right now, it was quite obvious, even for the Trump administration, at least because we saw all that crazy and crazy pressure on Ukraine from Trump both to the oval office and after. And only because we did not give up blackmailing and did not accept surrender, today - thanks to the joint efforts of Ukraine and conscious partners - attempts to force us to surrender from Trump stopped.

Therefore, let me remind you that Putin can actually look for peace on certain conditions: these 4 factors still need to be multiplied by the fundamental failure of dictators to adequately evaluate the situation, as well as a systematic "lies in reports". Yes, the feedback system in the Russian Federation is much worse than Ukrainian.

That is, to assume that real negotiations are possible (and a 30-day truce, which is an "American proposal", is initiated for this purpose), we have to think that Putin knows that his successes are temporary or very soon with a disaster. It makes no sense to make a "short pause" decision. If he, of course, does not feel that the catastrophe is close. Let us remind you about the person who sent to Kiev Rosgvardia to suppress protests after victory for 3 days.

Therefore, he is likely to remain in the positions of old demands or, as Notevsky suggested, will offer a war stop for 6 months (but without peacekeepers and weapons) demanding to hold elections. To try to transfer responsibility to Ukraine again. In the future, 3-6 months the Kremlin will try to wait. To hope for another conflict of Washington with Kiev, Brussels or London, that is, that Trump will continue to destroy the Atlantic unity.

And if the situation on the front and inside Russia will remain relatively stable in terms of the regime, Putin will not make the conditions that provide large -scale concessions. Therefore, all witnesses of "Peace for Easter" or when Trump wants it, I advise to focus on the formula "If not in the Armed Forces - for the Armed Forces". And not on the expectations that Trump will be able to squeeze Putin and get him to negotiate.