"Shahda", diversions, cyberattacks: how the Russian Federation plans to attack Poland and why there will be no repetition of Ukraine

European considerations that Russia will attack around 2030, so it is worth having time to be re -armed by this time. It is appropriate to hit at the time of the slightest readiness. The Russian blow is quite likely until the end of this year. The question is first.

Where to beat? Traditionally, the first goal is the Baltic States, it is easier in terms of low size and high probability of non -interference of the United States - but this does not give the Kremlin the achievement of a strategic goal to remove Europe. This can be achieved by a blow to Poland. But not because of the Suvoalsky Corridor, where Russia is waiting. The second question.

How to beat? Poland is now actively preparing for the Second World War (this is not a board) by purchasing tanks and other armored vehicles. They will not be needed. They will not even have time to leave the hangars. The war of February 2022 will no longer be. The Russian Military Doctrine provides the so -called Lymine War, well described in David Kilkalen's book "Dragons and Snakes".

The essence of this approach is in the use of sub -threshold methods of warfare, when the enemy does not understand what is happening and cannot decide whether to do something in response, or even too early, and if done, what and what. And at the moment when the decision is made to do something - it's too late, because everything is over. So, imagine an attack on Poland that combines: the first consequence will be the country not for hours, but for a week.

The second consequence will be a collapse of government. The third consequence will be ten million Polish refugees running to Germany, causing a collapse of government. Further, the domino effect extends to Brussels. In principle, the goal is achieved. The supply of Ukraine through Poland was disrupted as a bonus. Preparation for the attack is active.

Recently amended military equipment in Germany and Belgium, large -scale disconnection in Spain and the Czech Republic, a fire on telecommunications networks in Poland - all this is a test of readiness and search for weaknesses. Does the political leadership of key European countries be dreamed? Yes, it is possible to understand that this is a rather probable scenario. But then paralysis of the will, which has simple explanations: preparation will cause panic, and panic will block the markets.