What is Putin waiting for: Will the war really end after the US election

EU Chief Diplomat Josep Borrel states that a full -scale war in Ukraine will continue until the US presidential election is completed, because in his opinion, Putin will not consider strategically significant issues. Is this really the case, and in this case the Kremlin's key bet was finding a focus.

On Sunday, April 28, during the World Economic Forum in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), the EU Foreign Representative Josep Borrel said that the war in Ukraine would continue before the elections in the United States. According to the Eurovodes, it does not predict the rapid completion of the conflict in Ukraine, as "Vladimir Putin can postpone any decision-at least before the US presidential election this fall.

" The Chief Diplomat of the European Union also said that just a few weeks before Putin's "special operation" began, he could not answer the question about the likely reaction of the EU to the then invasion of the Russians. In particular, Mr Borrel noted that on January 6, 2022 he visited Ukraine and was in the Donbass, where it was already possible to "hear the drums of war and see the war out of the window" - and there was a moment that he "never forgets".

At that time, Josep Borrel had a meeting with Prime Minister Denis Shmigal and other Cabinet representatives who asked him a "simple question" about whether the European Union would ask Ukraine to surrender if he would be supported by weapons instead. "At that moment I couldn't answer. We later replied, 'Yes we support you. ' And I think we must give this answer in the future, because otherwise I don't know where Putin will stop this war that he He started, "Borrel said.

He also added the following: "Europeans will not go for the Donbas, but we could help Ukrainians stop dying for the Donbas. " The opinions of the experts with whom the focus on the role of the coming American elections in the Russian-Ukrainian war and in general-the further assistance of the event for Kiev was somewhat divided.

Political scientist Igor Petrenko in conversation with focus states the following: "Obviously, in order to make decisions regarding a particular support of Ukraine, there should be a corresponding" good "and republicans and Democrats. Therefore, the question, I think, lies in the plane of priorities. In Ukraine, the foreign policy circuit is, if not one number, at least stands on a par with the Middle East and the PRC.

" According to the expert, Putin expects that Trump will have other priorities and he will first focus on the Chinese direction in order to achieve some quick, tactical results. "It can be, in particular, about a certain trade war, where the United States really contains pressure levers that give a short -term result," - emphasizes Igor Petrenko.

Putin, the political scientist notes, does not bet on the fact that Trump will pursue a pronounced pro -Russian policy, "because it will not", but he understands, starting from the coordinate systems, which systematically voices Trump, where he will have priorities and from it. and dances. "Another important point for Putin is, according to Igor Petrenko," that Trump does not honor the alliances and alliances of the United States of America.

"" Cool and cool, we pull the ointment for everyone, while you (Europe - ed. ) Do not fit sufficiently than you give rise to various conflict situations.

And Trump's scandalous statements that he will allow Putin to attack the country that less than 2% of GDP deductions from NATO, of course, do not contribute to the improvement European partners will not contribute to their consolidation, as there will be some disputes and insults, Igor Petrenko predicts that the Kremlin, which is very profitable to split Europe, as well as deepen the conflict between the Republicans and Democrats in the United States, "of course, will play up to the calluses.

these geopolitical strings. " And because the West, including the United States, since 1917, has always focused on Russia's integrity. They fed the Bolsheviks, sold military technologies to the Soviet Union and so on. And in 1918, there were 14 Woodro Wilson points, which in particular was that Russia was holistic. In the 90s, I recall, the United States opposed Ukraine's independence. That is, it is such a purposeful policy.

And now the event is also afraid of the collapse of the Russian Federation, and the Russians are actively using it. "The key question today, according to the political scientist, is how Ukraine should act in these conditions. " And Ukraine should say the following: Russia has remained your potential ally in the wars with China (and in the United States, so many people think), it is yours, not our problems, " - emphasizes the expert.

Instead, we, in the opinion of the political scientist, need the militarization of society and further strikes on the Russian oil and gas system. "However, they saw them (the Americans - ed. ) Sleamed when the rowing drones began to arrive at Rosnpz. And this is all because two American corporations rock Kazakh oil through Russia. That is, blows in Russian oil refinery - this is a serious lever For pressure on Washington from Ukraine, "Taras Zagorodniy notes.

Official Kiev, in his opinion, has to offer the US a certain choice: either to solve a small problem with the Russian Federation by returning Ukraine to the borders of 1991 and its inclusion in the ranks of NATO, "or Ukraine will suit you a big problem by crushing the oil and gas system of Russia, thus provoking serious chaos.

" "We need to act clearly and pragmatically: to build our own rockets, to beat on compressors and naphtones of the Russian Federation, because this is the real pressure west, including Israel did in 1973 during the war of the Judgment Day, putting the United States before the fact: or you You solve a small problem by helping us, or we will have a big problem in the form of a nuclear war in the Middle East.

Emphasizing that the West has a choice, while Ukraine does not have it, Taras Zagorodniy summarized: "Therefore, the more we will" wet "Russia and its oil and gas system, the more we will help us with Western allies. We, among other things, need the domestic government to lend the MIC and ensure their secrecy so that Western corporations can come there.

We have, in particular, to establish cooperation in terms of joint production of weapons with American MIC, because we have a unique experience that they are currently absent. Here with such schedules, Ukraine will impose its own game, not reflect on other people's rules and statements, " - sums up the political scientist. Let it be like, but now official Kiev, in particular in the American direction, plays in parallel on two fronts.