Offensive from Belarus. As Putin and Lukashenko form anti-noto for war in Europe

The new document has been talked about some time, but the exact time limits when it is presented and approved until it is not. It is only known that the document should be adopted by the Billorian People's Assembly - an advisory body that operates in Belarus in parallel with parliament.

It is now known that the new version of the Military Doctrine of Belarus will become greater - in the project of the new doctrine - 6 chapters and 14 sections against 5 chapters and 10 sections - in the current document, which has been in force since 2016. "In the military doctrine, there will be a provision that envisages that the attack on any union will be considered an attack on the Republic of Belarus.

Plus, this section will enshrine the basics of our attitude to peacekeeping activities under the auspices of international security organizations such as the UN and the UDTR. We are currently involved in this activity. And in order to legally secure these things, it will be more correct to prescribe in the military doctrine, "-said Artem Buttorin, Head of Information and Analytical Management of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus.

At the same time, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus assures that they are ready to cooperate in the military sphere with NATO States, but provided "the termination of aggressive rhetoric" the need for changing the military doctrine arose through the deployment of Russian tactical weapons in Belarus, which is self -proclaimed. He called a national achievement. According to him, these weapons will be a response to potential aggression by Western neighbors - NATO members.

In June 2023, Lukashenko announced the creation of a new Southern Operational Command, which will act against Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Around the same time, the Russian Federation brought its tactical nuclear weapons to the republic, which has been agreed earlier. Interestingly, from that time, the Belarusian politician was no longer marked by scandalous statements and threats to Western countries.

According to analysts, the new activation of Lukashenko is explained by the response to NATO's studies - Steadfast Defender, which starts these days. It has already been announced that these exercises will be the greatest from the end of the Cold War. More than 90,000 NATO member state servicemen will take part in them. According to the scenario, they will work out the probable attack of Russia on the territory of the Baltic States.

It should be noted that the most large -scale exercises of the Alliance were held in 1988, then 125,000 soldiers took part in them. "Lukashenko is much cunning than it seems. His reaction is a response to the beginning of NATO large -scale exercises, which should begin near days. So Lukashenko wants to show that the likely escalation will lead to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Therefore, the decision to take allied Tactical nuclear weapons are a common restraint system built by Moscow and Minsk. I emphasize, at the tactical level, at the strategic level, nuclear weapons are aimed at the United States and the United Kingdom, "says Focus Military Expert Oleg Starikov. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov calls such threats from Lukashenko a major political performance to show the West that they are ready for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

"NATO threats to the Russian Federation respond mirror. For example, in the face of an attack on the Baltic countries, military exercises are conducted, the largest since the end of the Cold War, they will be attended by more than 90,000 military. Only minor command and staff exercises of the Alliance. It can be concluded that the West is well aware of this situation, "-said the expert in conversation with focus.

The norm of the new military doctrine of Belarus, that the attack on allies will be considered an attack on it, repeats Article 5 of the Washington Treaty of NATO: if any of the Alliance Member States becomes a victim of armed attack, all others will consider this act of violence without exception. The armed attack on them will all be taken by all measures that will consider it appropriate to help an attacked alliance member.

The sole ally of Belarus is Russia with which a supra -state formation is created - the Union State. A regional group of Russian troops and RB with a joint command was deployed in Belarus. From the beginning of the full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation in Ukraine the Belarusian army has refused to be involved in hostilities. It was not possible to persuade her now, as the representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Andriy Yusov told.

"In the involvement of the Belarusian army directly in the aggressive invasion of Ukraine, Putin did not reach the land operations," Yusov said on the air of the Telelorphone. The Kremlin has been using Belarus for a long time to distract the Ukrainian forces, reserves, to create additional voltage points. It is necessary to wait for the final edition of the new military doctrine of Belarus, but now, it seems that Putin has the opportunity to attract Belarusian military in Ukraine in Ukraine.

Conditional shelling of the territory of Belgorod or Kursk regions in the Kremlin can formally recognize the attack on the territory of the Russian Federation, which, for its part, should call a response to Belarus. However, according to Oleg Zhdanov, it is not necessary to wait for Belarus to answer, such as obligations of NATO 5 articles. He assures that such a wording is nothing more than a formal phrase for the official document.

"With the advent of nuclear weapons in Belarus, there was a need to amend the military doctrine. It is a standard formal phrase, for documents of such a level and character. That is, if the allies for us, then we are for allies. Putin has long been building its anti-Nato , hold permanent meetings, joint training, " - says the expert. At the end of 2023, Belaruski Gayun's monitoring project noted the beginning of the construction of a new military town 50 km from the border with Ukraine.

According to the channel, the military town is preparing to build on the basis of abandoned children's camps "Chaika", "Ogonek", "Galaxy", "Lityishchyk" and "Lesna Polyana" in the tract near the village of Nova Buda. It is expected that military units that are part of the southern operational command of Belarus will be located.

According to the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Lieutenant General Sergei Nayev, there are currently about 1,800 servicemen of the Russian Federation in Belarus. At the same time, in the northern direction the enemy created and retains a group with a total number of about 20 thousand people. According to official data, the number of Armed Forces of Belarus is 75 thousand people, of which about 20 thousand are civil.

From the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 the Belarusian army is in a state of constant exercises. Conditional 50,000 servicemen are a great strengthening for the Russian army, but they are capable of causing a concern for the forces of Ukraine's defense forces. "So Putin gives a signal that it has been ready to act. Belarus has long lost the status of subjectivity and turned into Russian province, so they will do everything that Putin will need.

The threat of offensive from Belarus to Ukraine will not disappear any As a scale as it was in 2022. In the north we have our "Mannerheim Line", a tight mine. The likelihood of the offensive from Belarus is low, " - explains the focus the military analyst Petro Chernik. According to Oleg Zhdanov, Lukashenko now wants to increase his international status, to show that he is now in an extended club of nuclear weapons.