Mobilization or defeat: what awaits Ukraine if not to give people army and not to militize the economy

Well, all yesterday they remembered who was "on the same day two years ago", walked through the memoirs, design? We can already talk about where we are now and what we are shining? So, two years ago, two countries entered this war equally unprepared. One - because, contrary to all warnings and common sense, she did not believe in the war and planned to fry barbecues in May.

The second - because she planned not war but a "special military operation", and contrary to common sense, she did not expect us to resist us. Both countries paid their price for unwillingness. Our country paid it to human lives, besides the lives of the best of us - those who in the first days of the invasion stormed military enlistment offices, grabbed weapons everywhere, where he could, and with Kalas in his hands went to stop the armored horde.

The horde met the total popular resistance, which partly (yes, only partially, because Ukraine is not only the capital, but also Mariupol, Melitopol, Kherson . . . ) was able to compensate for the criminal irresponsibility of the steering and our unwillingness. Russia has also paid its price as the lives of its best personnel military, the skeleton of the army that now needs restoration throughout the generation. She paid international isolation and full "unaccountedability" in a civilized world.

She paid sanctions that did not give an instant effect, but in fact have already launched prolonged irreversible processes that the Russian economy is not able to survive normally. In the end, she paid huge reserves of equipment, weapons and BCs, which their industry is unable to restore, except for decades (and not a fact). And as it unfolded, both sides began to change. The Russians began to respect us, recognized a truly serious enemy.

And they began to fight against us as against a serious enemy. The Horde steers have defined this war for themselves as an existential, where "gentlemen or disappeared. " Or they will defeat us and pass a parade on Khreshchatyk, and then the victory will be dismissed, and no one will judge the winners. Or we will defeat them, and then in Russia will start the turmoil, from which the Kremlin leaders will seem to be the best way out of the prosecutors to the Hague.

However, in the Russian realities to survive to the Hague is not so easy, a witness is there. Therefore, as it belongs in the war, which is a rate of survival, the Russian regime has excluded such a concept as "acceptable or unacceptable price", and ready to use all available resources, up to the last soldier, a projectile or dollar.

Russia-Krasov, through the ass, but has been able to carry out the greatest mobilization since the Second World War and sprinkle on the front of half a million of mobes in one wave, and then during the year already calmly, without excesses to recruit as much. Half a million mobic and mobilized construction companies dug the Surovikin Line and the cost of heavy losses, but were still able to withstand our offensive on this line during the year.

And when we exhaled, we went to a counter -offensive throughout the front. The way they know - blunt meat storms, with huge unjustified losses, but they are moving again. Meanwhile, Mordora's industry has been transferred to military rails, 40% of the total Russian budget goes to war, military plants operate in three changes 24/7.

However, this still does not even compensate for the losses that our defenders and defenders cause the hordes, and the difference between "debit and credit" is growing on a monthly basis, and in the "bottomless reserves" is already increasingly enlightened by the day (to whom it is interesting, I am in detail The numbers disassembled this in the posts of the end of 2023, since then nothing has changed).

But for the year or two of the war, these reserves + production will still be enough, perhaps even three (though not for ten or twenty or thirty or even five). I am not about resources right now, so they are mostly more and more than time as a way. Unfortunately, you will not say about the will to fight. It seems that the victories of the first year of the war have played a very bad and dangerous joke with us.

For some reason, we decided that the main thing was behind that once we broke up "our", and then near Kharkiv and Kherson began to win in a full war, so everything was already needed, and we should just wait for the victory.

"Your subscriber is talking and while he is talking, the victory is approaching!" (c) Kyivstar… The only nation united in a grave of the total resistance of the Horde, a nation where everyone lived with this war, and if he did not take his arms, he did his best to help brothers and sisters with weapons, remained in 2022 -a year.

We divided into an army that is getting better and better than every day of the war, but at the same time it is worth it in the process of this work, and a full calm rear, which built the most possible comfort in the war and is not ready to concede a little with this comfort. For some reason, we decided that this war should bring to the victory those who went to fight at the beginning of the invasion.

We have invented a comfortable mantra "I believe in the Armed Forces", as if "the Armed Forces" are not a million mobes, yesterday's the same civilians as we are with you, but some army of superhumans came from space. It is enough for us to "believe" in this superarmia, it will do everything else.

Throughout the year we did not even mention the word "mobilization", except in the context of the fun of Russian "Chnon" - though from the fall of 2022, when a mobilizer began in Russia, it was obvious as two four four, we would have to put a comparable number of fighters on the front And that means great mobilization. We repeated our bitter experience of "frying barbecues", all year long, as in the old joke about pregnancy - "I thought it would be absorbed. " Not dissolved.

At the end of 2023 it became clear that it did not work. We have finally acknowledged that people were lacking on the front, because, firstly, they were much less than enemies, and secondly, they are not eternal, they go out as combat and non-combat losses, lose their health and more. Instead, for several months of empty debate, all those social diseases that managed not to notice against the backdrop of the Armed Forces were illuminated around the mobilization.

It is the absolute infantility of the significant, if not overwhelming, part of society, dull unwillingness to see the relationship between rights and responsibilities. "This state did not give me anything, I do not oblige anything, instead I have the constitutional rights of the blah blah-blah"-this choir of the votes of the scum sounds not a marginal squeak, but a mainestry roar of the indignant rear crowd.

And in this choir weave "wise" advocates, "reflections" of journalists, "election slogans" of politicians, and of course, well familiar to us, and for some reason not detained by special services, the voices of the Russian agency. From each iron, including the highest, the stupid meaning of the phrase "fair mobilization" sounds.

At the same time, "justice" for some reason implies the maximum protection of the rights of offenders - evidence, instead justice about those who have been defending us for two years, somehow "brought for brackets". The infantilence of society should be offset by adulthood and responsibility. Instead, we have been seeing a miserable dance for a naked ass on two chairs for a few months - "as if the war is not lost, and the voices of the evasion do not lose? . . ".

In this disgusting dance, all the branches of civilians, power and opposition factions merged in ecstasy. They are all so afraid of losing ratings that they seem to not notice how we lose the country step by step. The Cabinet is not able to banally cancel its stupid resolution, adopted before the war (!) In the fall of 2021, according to which the Tax Code has no right to check documents outside the block posts.

Yes, this is not about the law, it is just a resolution of KM - but its cancellation will be "unpopular", so military committees can still be sent to all screensavers.

The so -called "mobilization bill", which is not actually not interested in it - see a little earlier my detailed analysis of the document), because it does not intensify the responsibility of the evasion at all, cannot pass the advice in any way, it is offered 4 thousand (!) All of them are just about the weakening and "protection of rights" of offenders. And another bill, which provides for amendments to criminal and admin of the codes, is not even presented at all for the first reading.

It will not be possible to sit on two chairs forever. Most likely, none of the parties will be able to victory this year, but at some point it will become clear that the pendulum is no longer swinging in turn from one side to the other and back. Instead of oscillations of the pendulum, a stonefall will arise, which may roll slowly, but in constant, and in a clearly defined direction - to victory. Either ours or above us.

Contrary to Trump, it seems that shells will go to us and one of the key problems of the front will be solved within a month or two. During the same time, the Russians will exhale after a month of meat storms, and a window will open for us. The next one, perhaps the last chance to break the course of war in our favor. But will anyone take advantage of this opportunity? The window window will not be eternal.

After the so-called "elections", nothing will hurt the Russians to repeat the mass mobilization of the fall of 2022, and somewhere in the end of summer, half a million of fresh "Chnon" will be supplied to us again. By that time, we could change the course of the war so much that even this replenishment would not save - but for this we have the same half a million replenishment should appear earlier than them.

It should be formed already, but instead, under the guidance of the Russian agency, a total resistance to mobilization is formed, and civilian power (unfortunately, the opposition does not behave better) demonstrates infantility, populism and impotent, incompatible with the survival of the country in the Great War. Our defenders and defenders have made their choice, now they just do their very hard work - they are fighting war. The army has nothing to add to this, it is set out at the maximum.

Choice for us, the Ukrainian rear, according to the civil part of society. And it seems very much that we make a wrong choice. This also applies to the main question - the mobilization of people, and the second in importance - the mobilization of the economy and finance.

We still lay the sidewalks with a tile, finance new flower beds with flowers, arrange parks (for example, in Kramatorsk-this is not a blunt joke, it is an article of expenditures of the local budget-2024), we provide in the budget of the capital 1% (one percent) of defense costs. Instead, we build a glass town in Natalka Park, and even something about the metro in the Troyeshchyna . . .

We needed to break the "Surovikin line" in order to understand the importance of fortification on the tenth year of the war. We allegedly started to dig, but . . . but since civilian construction companies are digging, they do it only where it is still calm, not where it sometimes "arrives".

Thus, in advance, the prepared second and third lines of defense are waiting for our defenders only very far beyond the current line of the front, at the "zero" we have to dug up as all this time - shovels, forces of the same people who should simultaneously reflect hostile attacks. However, it is not the fact that in the deep rear, our "Surovikin lines" will become a reality, not repeat the fate of the infamous "Yatsenyuk wall".

After all, they are built not just civilian companies for civilian budgets - they are being built under the laws of peacetime, through tenders on "Prozorro", with all the delays and bureaucratic procedures that flow from it, with breaks of time, repeated transfer of competitions, etc.

If our grantogs - the anti -digs of their time were able to "burn" "prozorro" to the Russians, they would be heroes of war: after all, the horde would never build a "Surovikin line" and our offensive last year would be a triumphant walk on "leopards" for coffee to Yalta. … Unfortunately, grantors can harm only one country, their own, so the lines of defense will not be in the horde, but we have.

From the good: despite the stupid "clogging from the success" of the first year of the war and practically married to the Ukrainian rear for the second year, the supervisors of our defenders gave their results. Nothing irreparable happened, the hostile army is far from best, hostile resources are not limitless. We still have a chance to break the course of the war in our favor this year, and let our victory and not fast, but inevitable.

From the bad: the army itself, without a radical change in the situation in the rear, is unlikely to continue to create miracles contrary to everything.

The Ukrainian rear faces the choice: either radically change its attitude to the war, mentally return to the first year of the war, to provide the army with great replenishment by people, and the economy to mobilize for military tasks - or admit that we are ready to lose the war, that is, ready for the Russian occupation ( After all, there will be no intermediate variants and compromises to us a horde, it is time to leave similar illusions).

The fact that I have been watching the last months, both from civilian authorities and among "ordinary citizens" is much more like the second option. However, again, it is not too late to be late. I think the point of bifurcation, when our choice is final and irreversible, very soon. We do what we can, and what will happen. Glory to Ukraine. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position. The author is responsible for published data in the "Thought" section.