The Russian Federation is torn to Dnipropetrovsk region: experts have explained whether Russia can fully occupy Donbas

"If in March the enemy managed to occupy 123 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, then in April 150 or even 160 square kilometers. In general, the pace of the offensive fell, despite the fact that the number of combat clashes and generally the rate of intensity of fire increased. The intensity of hostilities.

According to the expert of the Center for Defense Strategies Viktor Kevlyuk - the task of occupation of Donbass is assigned to the group of Russian troops "South", which operates in the operating area about 140 kilometers and consists of 6 general military armies. "We now see an exacerbation in the estuary, we see the activation of the enemy in the Toretsky direction.

Promotion in these two sections of the front should create preconditions for coverage from the northern and southern flanks of the so -called fortress belt. These are four Ukrainian cities: Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konantinovka. " The battle for Toretsk has been going on for 11 months, during the ravine - more than a year. During the spring, the Russian army did not achieve serious success here. Street battles are ongoing in cities.

According to Grabsky - it is believed that in the conditions of urban development it often wins not quality, but quantity. And this is the main, say, the power of the Russians - quantitative indicators as they break through, how they can climb forward. "But in Toretsk and in the time spring, the Russians have tied. They try to bypass the Pokrovsky-Mirnograd agglomeration, realizing what heavy fights they are waiting in front.

They try to displace us, as it happened in Avdiivka, when they clamped us on three sides of the fifty. For example, the option they use and use, as they think, is very successful, "the expert says. In the area of ​​Pokrovsk, the Armed Forces in the spring were able not only to stop the rapid promotion of the army of the Russian Federation, but also to contradaculate successfully in some areas of the front. In particular in the area of ​​Sand and Shevchenko.

According to Kevlyuk, this direction quickly acquires the status of secondary. To take Pokrovsk and Mirnograd with a depleted group "Center", which is unlikely to come here, although attempts are still ongoing. "The 41st Army, which came in the direction of the main blow to Pokrovsk, had three brigades, of which little left. But these brigades are fueled with resources almost continuously, in fact from wheels. Each brigade has a regiment of mobilization reserve, where they are pumping.

days " - says Kevlyuk. But in the Liman direction, the army of the Russian Federation had some success. In the spring, the occupying troops managed to expand the bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River, stepping simultaneously south in the direction of the estuary and west to the Oskil River.

Even before Easter, the invaders seized the village Katerynivka and Novomikhailivka "this direction for the enemy was the direction of a minor blow, but since they turn out here, it is likely that the 25th army will develop success here, breaking into the village of Stepovo and further on Borova"-says Kevluk. In addition, the army of the Russian Federation is torn to the Dnipropetrovsk region.

To the administrative border, from which to the village of Kotlyarivka, where there are now fighting, there are about two and a half kilometers. "This is an exclusively political step, a political gesture, because from a military point of view about some strategy does not say here. Suppose they will break to the border of the region - then they are greeted by defense along the Solon River, it will need to be forced by this river, no matter how little it is.

They went to the borders, or crossed the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, and we begin the liberation of the Dnipropetrovsk region, " - Grabovsky. "The enemy occupied today about 80% of the territory of Donetsk region, which at the beginning of the war was proclaimed as the main purpose of the war. The enemy has, in principle, some chances to realize this purpose.

Constitution - contains references to Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and there is nothing about Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk. - adds Kevluk. According to Kevluk, in two narrow sections of a few kilometers in length: Toretsk-Tarasivka and Yampolivka-Terne, the Russian army created an advantage of almost 10 to 1 in the forces and means, which, however, does not allow it to move forward. "This war was significantly rewritten the old operating arts textbooks.

If it was considered full-time that the operation of the operation was sufficient to create advantages 1 to 2 in all operating areas and 1 to 5 in the directions of the main blow-now it does not always work. Because the continuous dominance of the willows over the territories is already 15-20 km. - says Kevluk. There are currently no strategic reserves required for a large offensive. And the operative reserves are extremely limited - Kevluk says.

Even if you imagine that the army of Russia will break the tactical zone of defense "Khortytsia", there is virtually nothing to develop the success of the enemy. "There are no moving tank mechanized compounds that would move rapidly into the depths, reaching at least an operational result. Therefore, we will see positional battles, we will see the endless attacks of units from the infantry group from 2-3 fighters to mouth attacks. Kevluk.

The current actions of the army of the aggressor country indicate that the main political and military goal of Russia this year will be the full occupation of the Donbass, more precisely-those about 20 percent of the territory, which are currently controlled by the Armed Forces. At the same time, even in the case of defense breaks on one of the areas of the front of reserves, to quickly go further in the Russian army as of the Russian Federation is clearly not enough.