Russia's offensive - until spring. When and why should enemy movements be expected

The promotion of Russians in the Donbass is quite predictable, taking into account what has happened over the last year, writes military observer Bogdan Miroshnikov. He sees this process no earlier than spring, but does not see any failure in it - this appearance has a strategic retreat. This text has come to a very long time, and it finally came. Let's return a little in 2023. The United States dance with Bubn and do not vote in favor of a help package to Ukraine.

In the meantime, we do not have money to mobilize in the right volumes + Russian mrazots work seriously in information on our mobilization and assistance from the Allies. What else does the enemy do at this time? Hidden mobilization. Due to the increase in payments under the "voluntary" signing of the contract. It kills two rabbits: what's going on? And then they increase the number of mobilized ("contractors") in 2 stages and form new regiments, brigades, divisions and even the army.

Officially increasing the number of O/s in the troops by 180 thousand from December 1. But the process of recruiting to this amount de facto is not only completed, but new units of these 180 K-are already partially participating in the battles in our territory. The grouping of marsh masots, which conducts fighting in our territory, already has 720-730 thousand O/s together with reserves. The enemy can add up to 50-70 thousand O/s for the next two months as a reserve and/or main forces.

So now this situation is on the front. Because at a time when we needed to act in the preparation plan, we had no money and assistance from the United States. "Road spoon to Obeda", dear partners. The fact that we started the Kursk surgery helped not fall Pokrovsk before. Because the transfer of 50 thousand o/s reserves from the enemy was not in Pokrovsk, but to Kursk. And this process continues.

Now imagine what success could be achieved in the Pokrovsky direction with an additional 50 k o/s of reserves. When will the enemy move end? An interesting question is that no one cannot answer right right now. Because the pace and intensity of the fighting should already decline in October. But the occupier does not consider it, and throws everything possible to capture as much as possible. So let's not expect any relief before spring. And then, it is very approximately.

The enemy hopes that he will force us directly or through allies to negotiations, so now he consumes precious resources and equipment with such ease to storm the next village on 3 streets. And if there are no negotiations, we will generally stand and what will the enemy do? There is not even an enemy's answer to this question.

Logic suggests that in this case, over time and preservation of at least 80% of Western support, we will be able to go to a strategic offensive operation in a year and a half. And now we have a strategic defense that lasts all year, and was not just expected, but also publicly voiced. What is strategic defense - I think, one should not explain. There are many different examples in the history of the format and scale of it.

For example, before the events on the Kursk Arc, the German command considered strategic defense with the departure as far as the Dnieper (ie to a depth of 750 km), but they instead went on attack and lost. Of course, we will not have such a scale (because there were 3 million O/s on both sides), but the meaning can be caught - when you have no sufficient resources to attack, then exhaust the opponent. And even if it takes 1.

5 years in total (if not more), it is not so bad in the context of the ultimate goal. The main thing is the preservation of the life and health of our soldiers, not the territory. It can be returned (and we will return), and human life is not. Therefore, let's all "betrayal" to convert to donat, all anger-into donat, and in any incomprehensible situation we will reach. The army needs you or your help. This is the only way out for everyone.