Putin's new war. The event is waiting for some catastrophe to get out of sleep

One high -ranking Western official told me that it may need a "second shock", similar to a full -scale invasion of Russia in Ukraine in February 2022 to bring Western countries to numbness and push Europeans to more radical steps to strengthen and integrate their own defense. Such a shock can be a sudden collapse of Ukrainian front defense, another Buchi -style massacre, arranged by Russian troops, or the victory of Donald Trump on November 5. Any of these options will be a catastrophe for Kiev.

While the United States is occupied by its presidential elections and escalation of the war in the Middle East, which has displaced the offensive actions of Moscow in the Donbass from the news headlines. France is distracted by the political and financial crisis, the power of Emmanuel Macron within the country and its influence in Europe is rapidly weakened.

Germany is paralyzed by internecine strife in its infirm three -party coalition, which can hold for the general elections planned for September 2025, and may not last. The United Kingdom is fighting its own budget issues as the new Labor Government is focused on health and public services repair against the backdrop of the media noise in the media about dubious gifts from political donors.

Meanwhile, the very right, pro -Russian parties are gaining strength in many European elections, including recently in Austria. In September, Russia seized more Ukrainian territory than any month since March 2022. However, despite Vladimir Zelensky's trip to the UN General Assembly and to Washington, to present a "Victory Plan" and ask for more weapons and more free hands for its use on Russian land, the attention of America and Europe was scattered. There were dangerous times for Kiev.

Joe Biden, who is increasingly turning into a "lame duck," avoids any political steps that can undermine the chances of Kamla Harris not to let Trump into the White House. This limits not only his ability to control Israel in his fight against Hamas, Hezbolla and Iran, but also his willingness to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with rockets set by the United States or European weapons with US components.

Biden is still concerned that Vladimir Putin can raise a nuclear rate or take action in response to the event that can expand the conflict and give Trump a propaganda stick to beat the Democrats. The United Kingdom and France, which supply Ukraine's Air-Earth, Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles cannot allow them to use unlimited use against Russian rear bases without Green Light.

German Chancellor Olaf Soltz continues to evade the supplies of the Taurus missile system, which Kiev has long been asked to use the Russian supply lines and missile launchers. Scholz's unwillingness is explained by the election position ("Alternative to Germany" and "The Alliance of Sakhri Wagenknecht" oppose the war), historical reasons (its SDP has always been a party of peace) and fears to call Russian retaliation on Germany.

In his farewell speeches and interviews, the former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg publicly expressed regret that Western allies had not set Ukraine more weapons to a full -scale invasion of Russia in 2022, claiming that this would complicate Moscow's offensive and could even restrain it. This is a retrospective view, especially since Stoltenberg still does not want to condemn the US caution or openly advocate a deep blow.

Major General Gordon "Skip" Davis complains that "Biden administration is delaying time again and again. " Speaking at a meeting of the European Political Center (EPC) dedicated to the situation in Ukraine, he said Washington overestimated the likelihood that Putin would go to the escalation Victory. We want not "as much as it will be needed", but "no matter how much it is needed," Davis added.

EU officials see a parallel between unwillingness to provide Ukraine with assistance that can change the course of events, and the persistent resistance of major European states against collective loans and joint purchases of weapons to strengthen Ukraine's defense and their own. Many European countries have devastated their trimmed ammunition reserves for the supply of Kiev and are trying hard to expand the national weaponry industry or provide deliveries abroad.

"At the beginning of this year, when the commission published its strategy for the development of the defense industry, there was a certain impulse in favor of strengthening European defense integration," one high -ranking official told me. "But after the European elections and political problems in the key capitals, it faded. " It may now be necessary to shock, such as the return to power of Trump's NATO Skepticism to restore energy and direct more money to EU defense efforts.

If Harris wins, there is a risk that the EU capitals will weaken their positions and return to the support of the US, as some after Baiden's victory over Trump 2020. Ukraine cannot afford to wait for such a "second shock" that would impress Western governments because its forces are drawn daily in the war for exhaustion with a numerous opponent.

"It cannot be expected that Ukraine will last for another 30 months, when our country is a battlefield and suffers daily blows," said Nikolai Beleskov, a senior analyst of the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine, at the same EPC meeting. - "What we do not see is a long -term strategy for sustained support. Otherwise, a scenario of Russia's victory will be implemented. " For European governments, regardless of their internal difficulties, the choice should be obvious.