China's invasion of Taiwan: Will AVs of Island withstand China

In the current environment, Taiwan's air defense will not cope with a long invasion of China on the island. The maximum that the air defense is capable of delaying the invasion. This week, Taiwan demonstrated the effectiveness of his Anti-aircraft missile system Land Sword II (TC-2) using mobile starting installations. At the same time, three demonstrations were conducted-two under the management of the 58th Taiwan Artillery Command and one under the management of the 43rd Artillery Command.

According to the Taiwanese government, all three launches were completely successful. The goals were UAV. Land Sword II provides low -range air defense. It is a system of Taiwan's own development, which uses the components of the Taiwanese Sky Sword missile system. The system includes four conveyors, starting installation, control tools, ammunition conveyor and radar system.

The Taiwanese soldiers have long wanted to expand the air defense network, especially in the light of a growing threat from China for a tiny island. Land Sword II system is intended to supplement the air defense. This system, according to Dylan Malyasov with defense-blog. com, "fills a critical gap in a multi-level air defense network, increasing mobility and reaction time, especially against threats that fly low, in coastal and border regions. " The last remark is very important.

The war in Ukraine proved the efficiency of drones both in the offensive and defensive role. At the same time, the recent conflict between India and Pakistan showed that the pro -Western forces, including Taiwan, should not be underestimated by Chinese military technologies. In a recent collision, Pakistani troops that use weapons and military aircraft (as well as drones) of Chinese production were much more effective against India than they assumed in the West.

Moreover, Taiwan's geographical location threatens him with isolation in the case of Chinese maritime blockade. Excessive dependence on Western weapons is problematic for the island - hence the desire to achieve as much independence as possible for armed infrastructure. If the island is in the blockade, it will need local supply chains and stocks to support life. But most likely, the steps are too little, and they are taken too late.

According to the available data, Taiwan has only six Land Sword II SPR batteries. Each battery includes CS/MYS-951 combat management center, CS/MPQ-951 radar installation and four or five missile installations. In total, six batteries have 30 mobile starting installations and 246 Sky Sword II missiles. These systems were ordered in 2019 and only now come into force. Six batteries are not enough even as a temporary event.

In the current environment, Taiwan's air defense will not cope with a long invasion of China on the island. The maximum that the air defense is capable of delaying the invasion. And the tactics of deferral work only if Taiwan has allies who are ready to fight on his behalf. So far, everything goes to the fact that US, Japanese or other troops will not rush to reflect the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Everything will depend on the Taiwan themselves.

Taipei should certainly save the available systems, but you should stop purchasing new ones. Instead, all the efforts of the Taiwanese government should be aimed at creating a huge number of drones and anti -tank weapons, as well as as many inhabitants of the island as possible. Moreover, it is necessary to start implementing long -term civil defense programs to create defensive cells and infrastructure necessary to support the insurgent movement on the island.

Ordinary tactics will not save Taiwan. It will be captured later. Its systems, such as Long Sword II, will not stop the invasion of the island. This small number of systems will be directed against the Taiwan themselves and destroyed. Only the classic guerrilla tactics will work here: lure the Chinese closely to the isolated island, and then not release Chinese invaders until they are drawn with blood. Until Taiwan's government is aware of this, it will continue to waste precious time and money.

Brandon J. Weikhert is a national security analyst, a former Congress employee and a geopolitical analyst who writes for The Washington Times, Asia Times and The-Pipeline. Author of the books "Winning Space: How America Remains a SuperPower", "Biohacked: China's Race to Control Life" and "The Shadow War: Iran's Quest for Supremacy". His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How The West Lost Ukraine will be released on October 22 at Encounter Books.