Three cycles of aggression of the Russian Federation. When there is frost in the war and why Putin has time by 2036

When will freezing in the war with the Russian Federation and how long will it last? I would like to remind that in the framework of the three-stroke war model, the first tact occurred in 2014-2015 and ended with the occupation of the Russian troops of Crimea and part of the Donbass. Then there is a pause between the first and second clock in the period 2016-2022. The second stroke of the war is the full-scale war of 2022.

It can be theoretically assumed that there may also be a pause between the second and third cycles. So far, it is unclear: let us try to analyze the three -stroke model of war on the basis of the analysis of major political cycles in the Russian Federation and the US, since some correlation is undoubtedly. Consider the Russian political cycle. It began with the adoption of the new Constitution and the presidential election in 2024. Putin has two presidential cadences: 2024-2030 and 2030-2036.

In the US, political cycles are built as follows: in any case, it is likely that it will be a "paired political cycle" (two cadences of the US President) in the period 2028-2036. As we can see, the large political cycle of the Russian Federation is almost completely in terms of terms with a large US political cycle, but there are differences. In the Russian Federation everything is forecast - two Putin's cadences. In the US, options are possible.

In addition, there are two cadences in the Russian larger political cycle, and three in the American. Most likely, Putin will try to transfer power to the successor of 2036, but for some time will remain in politics as Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan (taking into account the errors of Nazarbayev during the transfer of power in the country with an authoritarian model of government). The conditional political "motto" of Putin's successor will be called "fixing".

That is, he will have to "consolidate" the results of the historical track that Putin will pass to him. In this context, Putin's current political cycle (2024-2030) can be-Maximum Aggression. That is, before the possible "freezing" and the completion of the second stroke of the war, the Russian Federation will try to reach the maximum positions.

At the level of the second stroke of the war, such purposes in the understanding of the Russian Federation are the occupation of four regions of Ukraine in addition to the occupied Crimea war at the first stroke (these goals were recorded in the official position of the Kremlin in peace talks). If the situation for the Russian Federation at the second stroke of the war will not be as it plans, it can go to freeze and without achieving the maximum purposes of the second stroke.

This is due to the fact that the main goals of the current war of the Russian Federation will try to achieve the results of the third stroke of the war. Thus, the current period 2025-2030 is the stage of maximum increase in the offensive of the Russian Federation and, at the same time, the stage of intermediate "freezing" of war. When can the above "frost" occur? The dates vary very much: from the end of 2025 to the end of 2026.

The pause between the second and third cycles of the war in this case will be from 1-2 to 4 years. In this case, Putin's cadence of 2030-2036 can pass under the "motto"-"finalization". At this stage, the Russian Federation may try to carry out the final third stroke of the war and complete it, but no longer in the format of "frost" for several years, but in the form of a longer -term stop.

As for the United States, as I wrote earlier, Trump has no plan after the war is completed, but there is a desire to complete the active involvement of America in this war to solve other global tasks, especially with China. But this is only a very limited analysis of the three -stake war on the basis of the theory of major political cycles. War as a model of "managed chaos" with a high level of uncertainty embedded in this model, is very difficult to predict by time. Source.