Meeting Zelensky and Putin: Will the President of the Russian Federation come to Turkey for negotiations

He stressed that the delay in hostilities did not make sense and expressed the hope that the Russian side would not seek the reasons for refusing to negotiate. This initiative emerged after the call of US President Donald Trump to direct negotiations between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia.

Earlier, Putin expressed his readiness for such negotiations in Istanbul, but without a preliminary ceasefire, which contradicts Ukraine and its Western partners, which insist on an immediate 30-day armistice. Focus found out what the probability of Vladimir Putin would agree to a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in Istanbul and what would be next. Candidate of Political Science, International Expert Stanislav Zelikhovsky believes that it is difficult to predict whether Putin will come to Istanbul.

The situation is very difficult for all parties, and there are various scenarios of events. Positive scenario - Russia agrees to negotiations, the ceasefire begins, the path to a peaceful dialogue opens. The negative scenario - Moscow completely refuses to participate, which will have the consequences both for itself and for the situation as a whole: further exacerbation of the conflict is possible. "Russia can also deliberately delay the process to win time, regroup and prepare for new fighting.

Personally, I doubt Putin will really appear in negotiations. He may have just wanted to make the impression of agreeing to negotiate, hoping that Ukraine would agree on its conditions. Stop help if Zelensky does not appear for a meeting, ”says Focus Zhelykhovsky. According to the political scientist, another scenario is possible: Russia may resort to certain provocations in its territory, or then blame Ukraine, and under this occasion to refuse the meeting.

"Such a course has been used more than once, in particular during Chechen wars. It can be both a sabotage and a terrorist attack, after which Russia will say that because of" Ukrainian crimes "negotiations are impossible, and Zelensky seems to have arrived himself. Such a distortion of facts will allow Putin to avoid a personal visit. Compromises, give up ultimative requirements and recognize the occupied territories, "says the political scientist.

Even though Relations with Rezhep Erdogan, Vladimir Putin will remain in a vulnerable position, the expert says: he or she has a warrant of the International Criminal Court, and the presence of US representatives (for example, a Secretary of State or Senators), even more narrows the space for maneuver. Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko also believes that Putin will not come to Istanbul to meet with Zelensky. "We see that there is a difficult tactical game.

The statements of the parties should not be taken literally - it is not Putin's appeal to Zelensky or vice versa. In fact, the main addressee of all these words is Donald Trump. All this performance is all, the exchange of signals - for him. Each parties tries to make the other first be guilty. " According to Fesenko, an offer to meet is not a sincere step towards, but a course in the game. Its essence is to force the other side to give up, even in humiliating form.

And even if Trump personally asks Putin to come, not the fact that he will agree. Although the likelihood of increasing then. But everything will depend on the form of the request. Because there are status games. "Zelensky could not refuse, but answered the non -standard one: he did not turn to Trump, but directly to Putin, raising the bet. It was a creative, strong answer - they say," I am ready, and you? " He is drawn to the time.

Political scientists agree that if Putin does not come, it will not change anything significantly. Negotiations will still happen, the question is only at what level. "Zelensky will not participate personally, it is not its format. Most likely, on the Russian side there will be Ushakov, from the Ukrainian - Yermak. But without the agreed agenda and active moderator, negotiations can quickly go to a dead end.

At this time, Zelensky can interview the Turkish media," It has come to a psychological victory. In practice, leaders are found only when everything is agreed. And according to the political scientist, to count on the agreement between Putin and Zelensky - naive. All this story with Putin's call to Istanbul is part of a acute tactical game. Putin announced the negotiations as earlier declared the truce - in fact, ultimatically: "you have to come.

" "The calculation is simple - Ukraine will refuse, and it can be accused of Trump that it does not want peace. But Zelensky did not refuse - on the contrary, raised the rates:" You want to negotiate - I will come. " According to Zhelykhovsky, if Putin does not come to Istanbul - in this case it will be a clear signal for the international community: Russia refuses to negotiate. This can lead to a new wave of coordinated sanctions from the EU and the US, and Ukraine will receive additional support.

"If Putin comes, he will have to reduce the degree of conflict and agree to compromise. Most likely, it will be not about peace, but about a certain" freezing "of war. But this is already a movement in the right direction," the political scientist said. According to Fesenko, the negotiations will take place. But the main question is: will they continue? There is no answer yet. And the further process will depend to the US.