Trump can use the vulnerability of the Russian Federation and Kursk will become a trump card in negotiations with Putin - The Hill

This military operation is taking place against the background of increasing the offensive of Russia in the Donetsk region, aimed at capturing as much territory as possible to the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump. About it writes a researcher at the London Analytical Center of the Society Henry Jackson David Kirichenko in his article for The Hill.

Although the first offensive of Ukraine in Kursk in August 2024 summoned conflicting estimates, the Secretary of State, which was retired, Anthony Blinken noted that these positions may be important during future negotiations with Russia. Since the stabilization of the fronts, the war has moved into the stage of exhaustion, Kirichenko notes.

He cites the words of the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny, who has recognized that he had underestimated Russia's readiness for long losses: "It was my mistake. Russia lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country, such victims would stop the war. " "So it can be assumed that Putin is ready to spend hundreds of thousands and even millions of soldiers to conquer Ukraine.

Independent Russian polls in 2024 also confirm that most Russians support the continuation of the war against Ukraine," the analyst writes. In October 2024, the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky noted that the previous offensive in Kursk forced Russia to transfer 50 thousand soldiers there. The main purpose of this step is not only to weaken Russia's resources, but also to show its vulnerability.

The constant strikes of Ukrainian drones in the Russian territory are part of this strategy. Ukraine aimed to challenge the red lines established by Biden administration and other Western leaders on its ability to strike in response to Russia. After the offensive of Ukraine to Kursk, the narrative changed, increasing the moral spirit. According to a survey, for the first time since November 2023, most Americans began to believe that Ukraine has a chance to win.

The offensive in the Kursk region looks like a carefully planned operation before Donald Trump's accession to the post of US President. Russia, feeling threatened, has transferred to the region one of the best military commander, General Junus-Beck Yevkurov. Although the Russian forces won 40% of the territory, Ukraine still controls key positions. Ukrainian troops are moving to the village of the Great Soldier, using gaps in the defense of the enemy.

This offensive demonstrates that Ukraine is ready to act decisively, even in the conditions of depletion of resources, Kirichenko says. Although these military maneuvers are risky for Ukraine, Kirichenko says, potential political benefits are significant enough to justify this attempt. Ukraine seeks to demonstrate its strength and show that it is actively fighting and that the event should continue its support.

"Since the new administration holds all cards in its hands, Trump can decide that the current weakness and vulnerability of Russia is an ideal opportunity to increase pressure to force Russia to sit at the talk table and start negotiations. ", - the author summarizes. We will remind, on January 16 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that in 5 months of fighting in the Kursk region Russia lost 30-35 thousand soldiers.