A peg in the heart of Ostpolitik: As Putin pushed the EU to transform in defense transformation

It was more a tactical gambite than a calculated strategy, and he could not predict that he was following this course. Although the return of Donald Trump to the White House caught Europe by surprise, he can still prevent Putin from going to the winner. Focus has translated the article of ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel Ben-Am on the transformation of Europe in the sphere of security against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It seems that Putin has all the cards now.

Transatlantic relations are cracking at the seams, as Trump's isolationist administration criticizes its European allies and does not express a special adherence to NATO. Worse, Trump seems to be in solidarity with Russia in the war in Ukraine.

He threatened to impose new sanctions and tariffs against Russia until the ceasefire and a peace agreement were reached, but at the same time laid responsibility for the continuation of hostilities on President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky and suspended military assistance and reconnaissance support of Ukraine (now, apparently). But in Europe there is still a chance to change the situation.

She is already abandoning her idea of ​​the "end of history" after the Cold War, according to which the principles of international law seemed inviolable, the European armed forces had to support peace rather than waving wars, and in the United States could be relied on in ensuring the security of Europe.

Finland and Sweden were the first to realize that the history had returned, and their joining NATO - in 2023 and 2024, respectively, became a serious impetus to strengthen the northern flank of the Alliance. Now the European Union seems to have come to terms with a new security situation, just announcing a plan of re -equipment worth $ 840 billion.

Even Germany, for whom the return of history is especially painful, is preparing for re -equipment: the future Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his probable coalition partners have agreed to create an infrastructure fund of 500 billion euros and a weakening of budgetary regulations, which will allow to increase investments. The value of this step cannot be underestimated.

After the Second World War, Germany abandoned the soft force in favor of soft, acting as a engine of European integration and a world -class stronghold based on the rules. Since the 1960s, this approach, known as Ostpolitik, included the desire for constructive interaction with the Soviet Union and then with Russia. This explains that the former Chancellor Angela Merkel has agreed to supply energy from Russia, despite the objections of other EU members and the US.

Putin's full -scale invasion of Putin in Ukraine conquered the plow into OstPolitik's heart. A few days later, the successor of Merkel, Olaf Scholtz, announced "Epochal Changes" in ZeitenWende in Germany's defensive and foreign policy. But it is Merz that will finally end the post-war past Germany-and this change will again put the country face-to-face with the most terrible and most fair ghosts of its history. First of all, it is about the fiscal revolution.

Germany's stinginess was a source of tension in the EU, especially during the Eurozone debt crisis in the early 2010s. But the Germans - and not least Merkel - were too well remembered how hyperinflation paved the way for Adolf Hitler, and in 2009, the first government of Merkel introduced a constitutional restriction of structural budget deficit up to 0. 35% of GDP a year, also known as a debt brake.

Against this background, the future review of debt, including the change and possible cancellation of the debt brake, is a radical change in Germany priorities. In a broader sense, Merz seems to be ready to take on leadership in Europe. Despite the fact that Germany is the largest EU economy, it did not want to take a truly leading role in Europe for a long time. However, the combination of Russian revenge and American isolationism has made this position incapable.

As the most populous country in Europe, located in the "geostrategic center" of the continent, Germany, according to Merz, should "take on more responsibility for leadership" in the field of defense. Any efforts to ensure European security begin with Ukraine. So far, Trump is trying to sit on two chairs: to agree on a peaceful agreement, which will almost certainly include surrender to Russia and economic blackmail of Ukraine, and then wash his hands and put her compliance with Europe.

But what is the meaning of a mediator that makes no guarantees? In order to avoid the repetition of the 1938 Munich Agreement, when France and Britain forced Czechoslovakia to give way to Hitler by starting World War II, Europe should quickly take steps to improve Ukraine on the battlefield and, accordingly, at the negotiating table.

Fortunately, it will not be as difficult to replace the lost financial assistance as Trump: Europe has given Ukraine much more support in dollar terms than the United States. However, it will be much more difficult to fill the lack of weapons, and in such an important short term is not possible. Immediately after reaching the peace agreement, Europe will have to act as a guarantor, which means to ensure effective restraint of Russian aggression. This just needs a nuclear umbrella.

That is why Mertz proposed to replace American nuclear warheads in Europe in French and British alternatives. They even say that Germany itself becomes a nuclear state. When NATO intervened in the war in Kosovo in 1999, the then German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, stated that the departure of land troops to a country that was once occupied by the Hitler Wehrmacht would "be unthinkable". Today, as Merz recognizes, it has become necessary.