The Russian Federation against NATO. As in the Alliance prepare for possible clashes

The German Tabloid Bild, the Boulevard and Mass Mainstand newspaper of the country, reported that it has been accessed to the secret document of the Bundeswehr - a training script. The authors of the article - Julian Ryopke and Georgios Ksanthopoulos - speak of the "dynamic scenario of a hybrid large -scale Russian attack on the Eastern Flang of NATO.

" They assume that hundreds of thousands of soldiers are located on the borders from the Russian Federation and its controlled Belarus, the beginning of hostilities is possible in the summer of 2025. The operation can be performed in several stages. The first is to begin in February 2024 with additional mobilization in Russia, 200,000 servicemen and successful spring offensive of the Russian army in Ukraine. The second is in July.

Then you can expect a hidden and subsequently obvious attack on Western countries using cyber deversions and other hybrid methods of war. And under the sight should be the Baltic countries. The western borders of the Russian Federation and Belarus may begin training "West-2024". At the same time, Russia will place medium range missiles in those territories. In parallel, he will increase military facilities in the Kaliningrad region, allegedly in order to prevent NATO's attacks from being prepared.

In the third stage, in December 2024, Russia will try to capture a narrow Silensk corridor at the border between Poland and Lithuania and stages a border conflict with numerous victims there. Eventually, in the summer of 2025, NATO will dare to apply restraint measures - orders to transfer 300,000 Alliance servicemen, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, to the Eastern Flang of NATO. NATO is now called unrealistic in NATO.

They substantiate: similar were previously invented, with non -existent countries and geographical regions. "It is now appropriate to use existing countries and geographical regions," - said NATO Center for Strategic Communications Center Janis Sarts in his X (former Twitter). That is, it is a scenario of exercises, which is a seeming situation to check military capabilities in a particular industry.

The purpose is to prepare for different options for the attack, for example, to find out how quickly the troops can be thrown away, and in what quantity. These arguments would be more convincing so that more than one detail. It can be remembered how in December 2021 the same edition of Bild drew another map - the capture of Russia by Russia, claiming that the Kremlin is preparing to capture two -thirds of the territories.

At that time, journalists also referred to NATO sources and security services. Their source noted that in the case of Putin's order, the Russian army would cause a "simultaneous attack from northern Crimea and through separatist territories in the east and from the north". The attack may be "late January - early February" if Ukraine and NATO do not answer Putin's requirements. In the end, it happened. Bild has published plans that are being worked out on training.

And not only NATO, but also the Russian Federation. This is convinced by the head of the security programs of the Center of Globalism "XXI" strategy Pavel Lakichuk. "A few years ago, it seems in 2017, the Russians conducted strategic command and staff exercises, during which they worked out the option of invasion of the Baltic States, the capture of Succy corridor. Therefore, to say that such a plan is not considered-will be wrong. But it is unknown what it will be.

It depends on the highest political leadership of the Russian Federation, "he says. Lakichuk notes that the Alliance is currently serious about Russia, although five years ago NATO representatives could ignore such signals. "There are currently potential victims of Russian aggression that do not allow it to take more decisive action. A large-scale invasion of Ukraine influenced this situation.

In 2022-2023, NATO moved from the Strategy of Restraining against Russia in Eastern and North-Eastern Flansey, and that Already great progress, to direct defense on NATO borders. But our neighbors are not enough: they say the soothing gestures of their allies, they say, see what Russians did in Bucha, Irpen and in Ukraine. Even five days for reflection - too much, during which time they will be peeled into ruins.

" At present, NATO countries not only believe in a possible attack by Russia, but also prepare for it. "Of course, France or Germany is easier, they think that before attacking them, Russia will bite small states or those on the border. On the other hand, they understand that Russia is able to act quickly enough, stepping differently .

After February 2022, even the most daring and reflected scenario for which one could get to a psychiatric hospital can now be considered probable, even with low probability. I would like the event to be prepared and invested in arms. - says the focus of the expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Ivan Stupak. Earlier, the head of the German Defense Ministry Boris Pistorius stated that the defense industry of Europe has five to eight years to increase its military potential.

Estonia Prime Minister Kai Callas said Russia was afraid of NATO's conflict. However, this does not mean that the Alliance cannot become the object of invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin has significantly intensified the Kremlin's long -standing efforts to create informational prerequisites for future escalations against the Baltic countries.

Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of the War in the report state that Putin has long been terrorizing the sovereignty of the former Soviet republics, and claims that he has the right to protect his "compatriots abroad", in particular, ethnic Russians and Russian -speaking outside Russia. "Therefore, during strategic exercises, the Russians work out the invasion in this direction," Pavel Lakichuk continues.

"I am not ready to sign under the words of some expert colleagues, which is obvious to the invasion of Ukraine by one of the main actions of Russia in the West. In the territory of the Baltic States, although in terms of combat training such a probability was. " Experts say that the Baltic countries in the sense of the Kremlin's current top are part of the destroyed Soviet Union. The first sprouts of freedom began there. In addition, three countries have joined NATO, actively support Ukraine.

"I visited Lithuania and Estonia in 2020 with a large delegation, we communicated with the territorial defense of these countries. Everyone, as one, said they were preparing for the invasion of Russia and working as bees on which the bear was attacked. They wanted to sting this bear from all sides.

For this purpose, many attended territorial defense training, some kept their weapons at home, explaining that in the event of an attack, if weapons are in stock, and everyone is going there, they can already be met with "green men", or these warehouses will destroyed. Different situations worked out. Now I think that this willingness has increased, "Ivan Stupak says. " They already said: "NATO will not protect us.

" NATO's concept for that period assumed that in the event of an attack on the Baltic countries, they They have to stay 180 days on their own, and then NATO reflects them. But even then, the Baltic States said that in 180 days of occupation they will simply not remain, that they will be cut to one. The attack was expected either from the territory of Belarus or the Baltic Sea.

"At the same time, Western and Ukrainian experts say that in Russia there is now no potential to start a great war against NATO. It is important not to miss the moment when Russia can try to commit aggression. -But depending on the events on the Ukrainian-Russian fronts, there may be changes in the situation. Baltic countries are the most obvious potential victim of the Russian aggressor. It can also be about Poland and Finland.

The invasion of Romania or Bulgaria is less likely to take into account the forces of the Russian Navy. This option is potential only if the Russians reach their goals and capture Ukraine, will move on. But we will not let them do it, " - says the head of the Security Programs of the Center of Globalism" XXI Strategy. " As soon as Russia accumulates resources, our Western partners will notice it, - adds Ivan Stupak.

- Remember 2022, when they were located in front of the border and trained for several months. "Another option - Russia can arrange constant provocations. For example, threatening several areas of Estonia to gradually draw NATO in a dispute, to distract. " A certain group of forces can always be formed.

Remember, on the eve of a full -scale invasion, even after the warning of our allies, our officials said that the grouping of forces in the north of our borders is not enough for a large -scale invasion. Although it was so, but they still climbed when they gave the team, - Lakichuk recalls. - There should be a rational view of the ratio, but it is only a component of the overall strategic plan. The fact that the nature of the Putin regime is aggressive - no one has doubts.

" , "Germany is preparing for the war between Russia and NATO after the Armed Forces defeat," "The Kremlin does not comment on the Bild message about the development of Germany" NATO War Scenario from the Russian Federation. " They did not comment on the Kremlin, but in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs so.

Russia, in the face of a spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova, compared the publication with a "last year's horoscope" and has been charged with Germany. "A powerful last year's cancer horoscope. I do not exclude that the Analytical part of the Bundesver was provided by the German Foreign Ministry under the guidance of Berb," ​​she said. In fact, Russia's threats are not new.

The Kremlin threatened the Alliance before the start of a full -scale invasion of Ukraine - constantly emphasizing that the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance, and after - every time after statements for military assistance to Ukraine. And also after the announcement of joining NATO Sweden and Finland. Recently, Russia has started organizing provocations on its border and threatening "problems".

In addition, Russia is constantly checking NATO for reaction, launching its planes and drones to the airspace of the Alliance Member States. "Boris Pistorius says Germany needs money and armed. It is a gradual process that lasts for years. Now in the world of non-fulfilled military contracts-$ 700 billion. countries. Many understand that by 2030, it is conditional to be ready, " - says Ivan Stupak.