"Ordinary Dictator": The expert told what would be with Putin when he loses war with Ukraine

"And if we look at history, we will see that such dictators were changed from time to time. So usually if they lost the war and could not meet the needs of supporters, they usually went," Bondarev said. The diplomat also believes that serious differences will begin in Russia, as the Russians will realize that Putin has lost the war and cannot offer them anything. In addition, they may think that the President of the Russian Federation is no longer needed.

"I think that as soon as they say goodbye to mistakes and find themselves in a new reality, where Putin can give nothing but fear and some threats of repression against their own people, it will change the situation," the diplomat said. Vlad Mikhnenko, an expert on the post -communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union from the University of Oxford, outlined three possible scenarios of Russia's defeat. According to the expert, much depends on how Russia loses the war.

Mikhnenko is convinced that the first scenario includes the chaotic retreat of the Russian forces, caused by a Ukrainian counter -offensive on one or several fronts. It will also cause panic among 600,000 Russians in Crimea and collaborators. "The situation in Moscow will develop rapidly, the security forces will push Putin from the authorities. He will not have a chance to use nuclear weapons as many are afraid, because this order will probably be sabotage at many levels," Mikhnenko said.

The second scenario, according to the expert, provides a withdrawal from the War's fighting, when the war will slowly end for a long time. Mobilized Russian soldiers will be held in the trenches under the accurate shelling of the Ukrainian forces. According to Mikhnenko, this development will give Putin time to stand for ceasefire or short-term settlement on almost any conditions. Then the Kremlin's head can agree to resign to make room for a new leader in the Russian Federation.

However, security officers may give Putin immunity from judicial investigation. The third scenario proposed by Mikhnenko assumes that the war in Ukraine will last for at least two years. The Ukrainian forces will carry out counter -offensives, displacing the occupiers from the captured territories in some areas of the front. In other areas, Russian defense may still be.

In this case, according to the expert, the security forces and economic elites of Russia will try to negotiate with Putin to convey power to the successor. At the same time, the Russian society will try to submit little success on the front as a "victory" in the war against the event. Recall that the Kremlin stated that they did not recognize the court in the Hague.

The spokesman for the President of the Russian Federation said that the International Criminal Court in the Hague did not recognize, because, in his opinion, international courts did not pay attention to the military crimes of "Ukrainian nationalists in the Donbass". Earlier, the reservists of the Armed Forces complained to Putin on their commanders.