Ukrainian nightmare for Russian refineries - as the main industry of the Russian Federation in the eyes ceases to exist

I would like to remind that this August were fires on Novosakhtinsky, Sizran, Saratov, Volgograd, Ryazan NPP. Logistics burned-Unecha and Ust-Lugu. According to various estimates (Reuters, Bloomberg), by the spring-summer 2025, Ukraine managed to disappear from 15% to 22% of all Russian primary oil processing facilities. In some peak moments, this figure was even higher. Russia was forced to dramatically reduce gasoline and diesel exports.

In February 2024, the Government of the Russian Federation introduced a complete ban on gasoline exports to stabilize the domestic market. It is a direct blow to foreign currency revenue - it is calculated by billions of dollars. If Ukraine is able to maintain such a rate of attack on refineries, then Russia will face a full -scale systemic fuel crisis. Fuel will be a shortage not only in the south but also in Central Russia. The government will be forced to enter the coupon system, as in the 90s.

The civil sector will receive fuel on a residual basis. In regions can start serious interruptions with the movement of buses. The truckers will face the inability to refuel, which will lead to paralysis of freight and shortage of goods in stores. Multiply this by disruption of railway stations. Add the fuel for harvesting. And this is not Ukraine on Siberian and Far Eastern refineries.

The most complex and most important installations (catalytic cracking, hydropowering) that produce high quality gasoline are Western production equipment. China does not do it. Due to sanctions, Russia cannot obtain original spare parts or technical support. Repair of such installations is not a week, but months. Not just Russia has classified gasoline production data. Some of the attacked refineries (as Ryazan or Nizhnynogorodsky) are large manufacturers of aviation kerosene.

Their stop creates problems for the PCS of Russia. The degradation of the oil industry will accelerate sharply. One ton of oil will produce less gasoline and more low quality fuel oil. At some point, in order to provide the domestic market, Russia will be forced to reduce exports not only of petroleum products but also of crude oil. This will strike an even stronger budget. The vast territory of Russia becomes not a plus, but a minus.