Christmas provocation from orban: what Putin can be useful truce

Why is Orban so hard to promote the idea of ​​"Christmas truce"? Given his warm relationship with Trump and Putin, can this be a coordinated position, both the Kremlin and the Trump teams? Orban's "peaceful initiatives" are his self -pring and an attempt to artificially lift his political weight, to imagine himself as a great and influential international player, and at the same time promote himself as a potential mediator in future peace talks.

Hungary's presidency ends in the European Union. Orban began this chairmanship of scandalous pseudomial initiatives and ending with another high -profile pseudo -pseudo -initiative. It is hardly agreed with Trump. If it were Trump's initiative, he would put it on his behalf. Trump is not inclined to share glory. It should be the main and monopoly peacemaker, not to give this role orban.

This is indirectly confirmed by Michael Voltz's comment, who did not deny this initiative, but made a warning that this initiative may be important if it was the first step towards the end of the fighting. But it is obvious that Orban is trying to adjust to Trump, who called on Russia and Ukraine to immediately stop hostilities. But some coordination of Orban's actions with Putin is quite possible. And if so, Orban's actions are a mean provocation.

Outside, his initiative is very reminiscent of Medvedchuk's actions seven years ago. In 2016-2017, the Kremlin blocked the exchange of prisoners a year. And then Medvedchuk comes into the arena with his proposals for the exchange of prisoners, which were agreed with Moscow. As a result, the Lavra peacekeepers receive the Kremlin and Medvedchuk, and Ukraine appears in a disadvantageous light. Something similar is happening now.

The meaning of Orban's actions, in addition to the self -housing, is to show that Kiev is against even a temporary ceasefire. And so Orban wants to put Zelensky in front of Trump. This is the meanness and provocativeness of Orban's actions. The exchange of prisoners does not require a mediator. For over two years, the mechanism of exchange of prisoners has been operating between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

Several times it was temporarily blocked by the Kremlin, but then renewed again, especially after the Kursk offensive operation of the Armed Forces. And the exchanges of prisoners do not need orban. It is only needed to create a scandal and provoke accusations against Ukraine, in particular to influence Ukraine's public opinion. As for the "Christmas truce", it should be understood that there can be no ceasefire unilaterally. And there can be no ceasefire only as a result of political statements.

Ukraine has a rich and mostly sad experience of dozens of different "trucers", including "Christmas", within the Minsk agreements. As a rule, they were very short and quickly disturbed by the opposite side. But even these truce had to be specially negotiated, coordinating the time of their beginning, duration, procedure of control. And what Orban offers is a banal imitation of a truce with propaganda purposes.

Note that Putin, commenting on the question of Orban's proposal for the "Christmas Truce," said he could "think" of this proposal. He did not give a direct positive answer. It is likely that with the participation of Orban and Putin could be played by a multi -led. If, for example, Ukraine agreed to such a truce, Putin could formally consent, but at the same time he would put forward his already known demands - Ukraine should first give Kherson and Zaporozhye, and so on.

As a result, Ukraine would show weakness, and Putin continued to dictate its conditions. The essence of all this provocation is to incline Ukraine to a truce under the conditions of unilateral concessions of Ukraine. At the same time, we see that Putin is not going to stop hostilities even temporarily. He said it directly during his "straight line". And since Orban, Pseudo -initiatives played by Putin, and even in provocative form, he categorically does not suit Ukraine as a mediator.