Ukraine is not ready for this: Foreign Policy named three scenarios of end of war

A number of foreign policy experts consider such ideas worth considering consideration, as US assistance in Ukraine of $ 61 billion will not last forever. Moreover, getting the same amount next year will be even more difficult, especially if President is Donald Trump, who can stop support at all. However, according to Senior Researcher at Columbia University Redzhan Menon, "now is not time to negotiate with Putin. " He wrote about it in his column for Foreign Policy.

The latest US assistance package and military support from Europe will allow Ukraine to fight for at least the next year. Although the result of the war remains unpredictable, a new Western Weapon Party, including Artillery and ATACMS systems, has already been received. Some experts believe that the best option for Ukraine may be an agreement on "division of territories".

Ukraine's ability to agree on the post -war settlement with which it can live depends on its military efficiency over the next 18 months. According to Menon, any negotiations with the Russian Federation should be started from the standpoint of force. Currently, Ukraine is not ready for this.

Those who propose negotiations between Kiev and Moscow are inclined to believe that Ukraine cannot achieve anything similar to victory, that the calendar in favor of Russia and that the continuation of Ukraine's armed resistance will only lead to new deaths, destruction and territorial loss Achievement of settlement - in the near future. Menon writes that the war has caused huge losses. He was convinced of his own eyes during four visits to Ukraine, so the desire to end the war is clear.

At the same time, he notes that despite their good intentions, the camp of those who support the "negotiation now" avoid a critical question: who will (or should) initiate them. One of the possible answers: the United States, the main supplier of weapons for Ukraine. But there is practically no chance until Biden remains president.

Proponents of negotiations may expect that Kiev will come to the conclusion that the continuation of the struggle will lead to an even worse result, and, based on this logic, will seek compromise with Moscow. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not express the slightest desire to take this step - not after the failure of the negotiations that took place in Belarus and Turkey shortly after the invasion.

Perhaps those who recommend negotiations predict that the fatigue of Ukrainians from the war will make Zelensky trade with Russia. This is possible, but now citizens of Ukraine are opposed to the agreement with Moscow at least the same as its leaders - ordinary Ukrainians often say that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted. In particular, due to violations of previous arrangements, such as the Budapest Memorandum.

The main disadvantage of considerations of supporters of negotiations is the proposed time, says Menon. Many supporters of peace talks want them to begin this summer. But the United States and their European allies have just started supplies to Ukraine for tens of billions of dollars and will not be completed by early autumn.

"It would be unreasonable to hurry up with the negotiations before seeing what change will be the introduction of additional weapons, whether the Russian army will be able to maintain the current pace when Ukraine will have more fire capacity and how successful it will be the project of Ukraine," - writes the author of the article.

If Ukraine, supported by additional troops and weapons, will reflect more territory - even if the achievements are much smaller than the ambitious goals of Zelensky - and Putin will realize that his army will not achieve additional achievements, Ukraine will have more influence levers than it is now. In addition, Russia also does not show the desire to negotiate, but on the contrary significantly increases its defensive budget, which has increased by 70%this year.

The political scientist believes that "it is not the action of a leader who seeks negotiations. " Given the unpredictability of forecasts and assuming that the whole President of Zelensky may be unattainable, there are several options for the end of this war.

Menon notes that other scenarios of events are possible, but in addition to the first, there is a common feature - they demand that Ukraine strengthen its negotiating position by stopping the Russian offensive, starting its own counter -offensive, returning more. "It takes time that Ukraine now has: Western weapons have just started to come to the front, and its volume will increase in the coming months. Russia and Ukraine can eventually negotiate political settlement.