Continuation of the war in 2026: why, while continuing aggression, Russia is on their knees

Everything was in differences, skillfully illuminated by Europeans - Putin's refusal to meet a personal meeting with Zelensky and disagreement of the Russian Federation with normal security guarantees for Ukraine. It seems that Trump has already reached that another round of E . . . Nina has not brought anything, but, as we know, his "couple of weeks before the deadline" never ends. For a while, all this will squeeze and then shoot something, and we will run in a new circle.

On the other hand, the old "Biden" weapons go to us (it is 20+ billion there), and European orders for new purchases are regularly appearing, so the current situation in this regard is not critical. Finance and weapons are, it is difficult to say the quality of management of troops, but at least does not deteriorate. Our main problem is people. In Russia, the situation is different.

Armored vehicles from the battlefield almost disappeared, in its absence, the main tactics of "seepage" are already small groups up to one person. The promotion goes, but in August it is slower than in June and July. "Speech materials" are moving from Russian, KNDRIV and Iranian plants. The set of contractors goes at the same pace (about 30 thousand a month), but the quality of the "material" that has encroached on big money is increasingly worse. That is, outwardly like ok, but not really ok.

The main problems of the Benzocolon Country-in the economy and finance. The economy in 2025 is practically not growing. The hole in the budget is huge, and by the end of the year will be even larger. The closure of the hole in December will spend the remains of liquid funds from the FNB and sell themselves a hren's cloud of bonds (which can be equated with "money" money).

And in 2026 it will be necessary to continue to increase military expenditures (such a logic of war, to save for the untwisted flywheel does not work). But how to do it if the economy and the current level of military expenditures does not pull, and the oil and gas, which has accumulated in many years, will be empty? So it turns out that for the war in 2026, Putin will have to "dispose of" all who can be printed and printed empty pieces.

With this approach, you can continue to fight, but it will mean that Russia, having devoured the accumulation of the past, has begun to devour its future. Therefore, Putin, if continues the war in 2026, will essentially begin the destruction of all the "economic lift from the knees" that he is so proud. So I continue to think that, despite the imaginary endless e . . . Nina, at some point Putin will stop being fooling and starting negotiations seriously.