Neither Kharkiv nor Kiev. What to expect from the Russian offensive on the front

Blogger Yuri Bogdanov disassembles the situation on the front, which was formed at the end of February. The conclusions are simple: the Russian offensive will exhale sooner or later, the enemy will not be able to capture any big city, there is nothing happening for panic? He picked up the opinions of the military, our own observations, and let's briefly try to give a focus, without emotional winding. In general, it is a clear diet of summer 2022.

Another cycle when they are pressing and we are tested for strength. The main test is on the front. Secondary - in the heads of those who are in the rear. It is difficult to stay inside the next cycle of this war and be hostages to the political will of the Allies. It is difficult to get a test for adulthood, a willingness to invest yourself and your resource in victory. We are now undergoing the fourth cycle of the Russian offensive.

February -March 2022, May - August 2022, December 2022 - April 2023, and here - since October 2023. During the summer of 2022, their most successful attempt, during the most intense offensive, they captured Rubizh, Lisichansk, Severodonetsk, Izum, Lyman. After half -rewinding our group in the Donbass. At that time, the Allies could not dare to Himars until July, and the artillery came very slowly. We do not know exactly how much they have enough resource.

Hil Rustamadze estimates that their offensive potential will last for a maximum of 1. 5 months. But it will depend very much on our partners. If the circus in the Congress exhaust itself in March and the shells from Europe will come at an updated pace, then by April the Russians will stop, and unable to seize the bridge of comparable at least with Severodonetsk. Because for this, the Russians need to return the general situation to the state of summer 2022, and before that they are far from.

And it is necessary that six months the Allies do a fool, we did nothing, and they have no problems. When you read the next Russian panic acceleration about the assault of Kharkiv or Zaporozhye, remember the same on the offensive of Belarus in winter 23, as hordes of Russians and Belarussians are re -fled to Kiev. What, of course, did not happen, because it was not resources to repeat such adventure.

The assault of the millionaire city, which still needs to be reached, was a suicide for the army of the Russian Federation and remained. Moreover, to Kharkiv to go from Kupyansk direction is quite strange when there is Belgorod region. But the data that the Russians are collecting something there are not even on our panic internet. So we will watch another attempt to take raisins and threaten Kramatorsk again from the north.

Will it be the depletion of the offensive potential, the completion of our crews and the receipt of help? But we will see it in March. By Avdiivka. Yes, the fact that the Armed Forces is now systematically departed from the surrounding villages is a fully predictable consequence of the loss of Avdiivka. It makes no sense to keep the territory up to the next series of heights, which will stand from Avdiivka a few kilometers.

Therefore, a systematic planned departure under cover is the right decision of the military command. And who writes that the "prepared borders" should be almost 1-2 km from Avdiivka-or does not understand what writes or consciously manipulates. Unfortunately, often the loss of the reference point accompanies a number of other losses around it. How was the same Russians with the same 2022. Is 2024 a real large -scale contradiction that was planned in 2023? No.

Just because such a concept did not justify itself. And again we will have to look for situational opportunities for the offensive, as it was with Kharkiv 2022. or to accumulate forces (human and material) and wait for systematic exhaustion of the Russian forces. War is a process with complex internal logic. Where linear logic does not always work, because it is impossible to take into account all the factors and to predict all trends. It is endurance competition. First of all - psychological.

This phase of Russian pressure will pass, the main thing is not to fall into collective hysteria. Tips and Recommendations for Civilian Standards. Not mobilized - get, do drones, repair cars, donate blood. Are you not in Ukraine? Get, go to rallies and demand increased assistance. For a rally or collecting you are not deported. If you are not in the country, you also have a duty to help her. Do not. We work on. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.