How can war in Ukraine next year: NYT analysis

But Republicans do not want to approve additional assistance to Ukraine. Does Europe have political will and defense industrial power to replace the United States? At the NATO summit before the election, the Allies developed a plan for logistics support of Ukraine. But officials from Baiden administration doubts that Europe can be supported. The dollar's economic power allows Washington to get a huge budget deficit for defense. Europe cannot do this.

As soon as American support disappears, it will be difficult for Europe to collect ammunition or funding at a level that can keep Ukraine in the fight. In a recent interview during the Presidential Campaign, Jay Di Vance suggested freezing the conflict and allowing Russia to preserve what it had seized. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have no intention to capture much more territories, but nothing indicates that he is ready to leave the part of Ukraine he is controlled.

The only subject of compromise can be the Kursk region. If this happens, Russia may return part of the Ukrainian territory in exchange for the agreement. But Kyiv is unlikely to return most of the lost lands. Journalists point out that victory or defeat for Ukraine does not depend on a specific area of ​​the territory, but on the agreements it can conclude with Europe and the US for long -term security and economic integration with the West.

At the same time, the main guarantee - NATO membership - is not considered. Trump will not offer it, but a Senate in which many Trump supporters will not approve. Vance supports neutrality for Ukraine - the key requirement of Putin. Trump did not reveal the details of his position, but seems unlikely that he would provide Ukraine with military support in the event of a future attack. He may have been able to push Putin to allow Ukraine to have some economic integration with Europe, for example.

Putin does not like it, but it will be better for him than Ukraine's accession to NATO. This is where the fears of Zelensky and Trump can coincide. Representatives of Ukraine have long declared that if they now enter into an agreement to end the war, it will simply be a holiday for the Russian army, which will replenish the reserves and return to the rest of Ukraine later.

Trump has repeatedly criticized Biden for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and probably does not want such a heritage in the form of capturing Kiev by the Russians, which would allow Democrats to say that he has lost Ukraine. Proponents of Ukraine among Republicans, although few, but claim that Trump does not like to look weak and would not agree to an agreement that will give Putin freedom of action.