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Andriy Zagorodniuk former Defense Minister of Ukraine, Chairman of the Board of ...

The third phase of war. What to expect from Belarus and what Russia is doing

Andriy Zagorodniuk former Defense Minister of Ukraine, Chairman of the Board of the Center of Defense Strategies The threat of Ukraine from the north has been from the first week of the war, the Belarusian factor has always been a time mechanism. We need to understand that at any time it can work. Not even about the language who agreed there to participate in the war of Russia against Ukraine, because it is all the consequences of propaganda.

And the fact that the pressure on the self -proclaimed President of Belarus is extremely strong to open the "second front". Unfortunately, this risk is. Video for Belarusians will be a disaster. As for Russia it became a disaster and a military campaign that they started on February 24, it will be an even greater catastrophe for Belarus. Because the death of even one or two thousand servicemen will be the first time in the history of Belarus since the Second World War, when the military is killed.

And this terrible episode will not decorate the Belarusian history. It will be its shameful part, and it can become the end of the mode that at the present time. Not that we are worried about the regime, but he has to think that they would be involved in this war - it can be the end, and very quickly. Now we have actually taken the initiative in the war. How did it develop? In the first phase of the war, the Russians opened at least 10 operating areas.

And these directions could not be supported at the same time. Made a lot of mistakes at the very beginning of the war, which was very expensive. After heavy losses, after the impossibility of achieving normal success in the vast majority of these areas, they stopped, regrouped and concentrated everything on one. It was the East of Ukraine. There they achieved some intermediate successes, but continued to stop, and at the same time Ukraine began to threaten them in other directions.

In Kharkiv they began to squeeze, formed groups and a potential threat in the south. They spanned, and about a month ago began to throw their strength there. And, again, they began to operate in several directions at the same time and in several directions to plan their actions. It is very dangerous for Russia because their organizational structure is extremely centralized and cannot work effectively in several directions at the same time. They are not capable of it.

Oddly, it sounds for such a large army. The whole world is surprised. But this is a fact. Therefore, we are talking about the third phase of war, which began in early August. Of course, prospects for Russians are very bad. They will not be able to succeed in the south, Donbass and in the Kharkiv region. Although their strengths and means are significant. It is impossible to underestimate them. But they developed on the basis of the situation we created.