"This is Putin's Dream": Baltic countries are preparing for the invasion of Russian troops - ft

The Baltic countries, according to journalists, are afraid that the Kremlin's head will risk checking NATO's determination to resist provocations or a "nightmare scenario", which provides a direct attack by the Russian Federation. NATO is led by Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and other states by additional troops to the Baltic States and other bordering states from the Russian Federation as they consider Russia's increasing danger.

This is written in a column for Financial Times Richard Miln and Ben Hall. According to Colmnists, fears are increasing in the Baltic region that Russian leader Vladimir Putin can check the determination of the North Atlantic Alliance with provocations or a "nightmare scenario" of a direct attack.

"Regional leaders are considering three Baltic countries with their small territory and a narrow land connection with the rest of NATO as a place where Putin inspired by Putin can try to test the unity and determination of the Alliance through destabilization provocations or even a direct military attack," journalists clarify.

Moreover, they add that these fears are exacerbated by the possible return to the White House of Donald Trump, who already expresses his doubts about the support of European security, especially in conflict with Russia. At the same time, along with increasing tension, there is a feeling that border with Russia is still in greater security because they are NATO members.

Moreover, when the Western Defense Alliance has recently strengthened by the accession of Finland and Sweden, turning the Baltic Sea into the so -called "NATO Lake". At the same time, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania intend to significantly increase the costs of defense in the next few years - up to 3% of GDP, which is above the NATO set in 2%, which, according to Trump, can be a prerequisite for US protection from the US .

At the same time, Russia has struck in Ukraine, and in its western border areas, addressed to the Baltic States and Finland, there were practically no Russian soldiers. "We are in greater security than ever before," says Margus Tsakhkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia. The Baltic countries, which joined NATO almost 20 years ago, have long warned European allies about Russian revanchism, but only now they have started listening to them.

At the same time, the military believes that in Russia there are now little resources for the attack on the Alliance, however, for example, the Estonia External Intelligence Service stated in February 2024 that "Russians in their own considerations proceed from the fact that NATO military conflict is possible in the next decade" . "They hope that we will become weaker. They will do our best to attack us psychologically," Edgar Rinkevich, President of Latvia, said.

Russian plans for military reform, published in 2023, provide doubling of the number of troops located in the Baltic region, up to 40 thousand people by 2026 and a major increase in the number of tanks and armored vehicles. And while Russia is running an aggressive war in Ukraine, it is difficult to comply with this graphics to the state-aggressor, but the military for making the necessary decision will ensure their readiness, confident in the Baltic countries.

As the cost of defense is about 6-7% of GDP, Russia has launched its defense industry, producing 4 million artillery shells a year, as well as hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles. Most of this low -tech equipment is designed for a low -technological war, but Russian plants are significantly ahead of Western. Therefore, experts of the Baltic countries see two scenarios of events. The first is that Russia succeeds in Ukraine and tries to use a weakened event.

"A way to do this is a quick Coup de Main (a sudden attack. The second scenario - if Ukraine and Western unity are reserved, then Russia can try distracting provocations, but not a full military attack, but with dozens of opportunities for hybrid attacks - from sabotage and murder to excitement of the local Russian -speaking population. "If we talk about scripts, I can imagine 100 of them," Vaidotas Urbelis, Director of Lithuania Defense Policy, emphasizes.

He is eaten by a high -ranking EU diplomat in the Baltic States, which is convinced that these states are at risk, and in various forms - not only in military, but also public, hybrid, economic. Baltic officials recognize that they are vulnerable to misinformation through Russian media, but say that Moscow's ability to use propaganda as weapons decreases as older generations die and young people become more integrated.

Richard Cols, the head of the Latvian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee, says that Putin dreams of abolishing NATO, to become a leader who will really challenge the Alliance, and he will fall apart. "This is Putin's dream - to check Article 5 for strength," Cols suggests. Today, the most vulnerable part of the NATO territory in the border with Russia is a narrow strip of land, which is Lithuanian-Polish border and is known as the Smalcksk Corridor.

According to many military experts, to restrain Russia here means to deprive it of the ability to use any of the geographical weaknesses of the Baltic States. A few years ago, NATO plans for the protection of the three Baltic countries were to allow Russia to pay them first, and a few months later, to repel it to the Armed Forces. Today, the strategy is to protect the NATO territory "from the first meter" and not allow Russian invaders to destroy cities, as is observed in Ukraine.

"We understand it simply: when Russia looks at us, it looks at the opportunities that are now, today. Russia believes that they can delay and disrupt reinforcements. Restraining will not be stable if it is based only on reinforcements," Urbelis says , Director of Lithuania Defense Policy. However, the United States remains the most important guarantee of NATO forces for the Baltic States.

Many Europeans are deeply concerned about what Trump's second presidency can bring, especially after his statements that Russia can do "everything he wants" with countries that do not spend enough money on defense. But none of the Baltic leaders or officials surveyed said they needed a plan of action to return Trump. "We are not so concerned about it. We are more considering it as an opportunity to push Europe to increase expenditures (in defense. - Ed.

)," Says one of the high -ranking representatives of the Baltic Defense Office. Latvia President Rinkevich says that reflections on the role of America in the world went beyond Trump and his republican allies. "We see deep changes in the thinking of the United States. This is not related to the current political cycle. Everything is much deeper," he says. Like his colleagues from the Baltic countries, he shares broad skepticism about the ability of European states to replace the United States.

The Baltic Security Paradox and NATO Allies respond to its warning means that the mood in the region is prone to sudden changes. In the Baltic, all agrees that NATO allies should strengthen their collective defense obligations. Therefore, the Defense Alliance gradually increases its presence in the Baltic region. "The restraint is largely in the hands of NATO: the deployment of troops to protect the territory from the first meter, realistic defense plans, common defensive resources.

Russia takes into account all this in its calculations. A high -ranking official from the Baltic countries. We will remind, Focus wrote that the Canadian army is now in an extremely poor condition - there are not enough people, money, and weapons are steadily obsolete. All this has led to the fact that NATO could not count on the Army of Canada.