90 thousand losses and only fields: the results of Russia's offensive in the summer of 2025 and what to wait in the fall

According to him, the attempt to seize Pokrovsk in Donetsk failed: in August, Russian units were destroyed or captured. In the northern direction, the Safety Belt Creation Plan also collapsed - the invaders control only 70 km of territory. In the south, in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions, the front line remained stable, forcing Russia to abandon the offensive plans. According to Ryopke, only 0. 3% of the territory of Ukraine (1800 km²) seized in the summer.

Instead, Ukraine increased attacks with drones, affecting Russian refineries at a distance of up to 1200 km. Since the beginning of 2025, 17% of the capacity of Russian oil refineries has been disrupted, which caused fuel shortages and rising prices in Russia. "The fourth summer of the war showed that the hope of Russia's rapid victory and the collapse of Ukrainian defense were in vain," Ryopke emphasized.

The military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko analyzes the summer offensive of Russian troops in Ukraine as unsuccessful. "It is impossible to say that it is a complete failure or fiasco with epic destruction, but the offensive really did not reach the goals. The Russians did not fulfill the key tasks that they stood in front of them," the focus emphasized.

According to him, the total territory that the enemy occupied during the summer will be approximately 1400 square meters. km. At first glance, it seems significant, but in fact it is mostly fields, forest strips, small villages and settlements without strategic importance. Tactical objects that could change the situation were not taken. According to Kovalenko, the Russians set ambitious tasks: to go to big cities, such as Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Siversk, Borova and Kupyansk.

In addition, they planned to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region to terrorize the amounts. None of these tasks have been completed. The buffer zone in the Sumy region was a complete failure. As for Kupyansk, the Russians have only recently approached its northwestern outskirts in one direction-across the Oskil River on the right bank-and try to throw sabotage groups into the city zone. Similarly with Pokrovsk: they only have access from the southwestern direction through the beast.

"To start active city battles, they need to cover the city of at least three destinations. At present, none of the target cities of such coverage. "To overcome" this period in street battles in Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Siversk, Kupyansk and Borova, "the expert adds. However, according to the observer, this did not happen.

At the end of the summer campaign, there is not only a decrease in the intensity of offensive actions, but also the loss of positions through the counter -attack of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. And in some areas, they went into a counterattack and returned some of the territories. Thus, the Russians reached only about 10% of the planned tasks.

The senior analyst of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Anton Zemlyna characterizes the summer offensive campaign of the Russian Federation as a failure. According to him, as of August 2025, Russia has not reached any of its operational goals of the summer offensive campaign: Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, the Yar - not captured, the enemy has not yet approached Konstantinovka.

In general, the Russian army failed to develop success in the Donetsk region, not to mention the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya region. "It can be assumed that the impulse of the Russian offensive campaign is already fading. For example, in almost all August, the Russians occupied 358 square meters. Focus analyst. In addition, in his opinion, there is a noticeable tendency to intercept the initiative. Thus, Ukrainian units in some areas carry out counter -offensive operations of a local nature.

In particular, it is about Sumy region border, Pokrovsky direction and more. The Russian Investigation on Dobropillya was not only stopped, but also almost completely cleaned the whole plot of advancement, although the counterattack of the Ukrainian troops is still ongoing. According to the earth, despite that the Russians have not fulfilled the main tasks, they had certain tactical successes in certain sections of the front.

"It is worth noting the Liman, Novopavlovsky directions and the Kupyansk area. The Russian army is used to some extent to some extent advanced and improve their tactical positions as an example in the outskirts of Kupyansk," the analyst added. However, according to the earth, we need to understand that at the strategic level, these advancement did not affect the overall situation.

The Russian leadership has not yet approached the fulfillment of the goals and occupation of the Ukrainian regions, including Donetsk region. At the same time, about 90,000 people, or 50 people per square km, were killed and wounded for the territorial successes of the summer campaign. According to Kovalenko, plans for the autumn of the Russian army will depend on how they will approach the autumn and winter period. He believes that most areas of the front will be stagnation.

But about Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, the Russians will try to impose city battles. They will also try to get as close as possible to Siversk to get it into street clashes. "As for Konstantinovka and Borovy, the situation is worse for them: they will not reach these cities. It is likely that the Russians will try to close the Novopavlovsky direction from the Vovcha River to Raven and Yangula, which will mean advancement in Dnipropetrovsk and even Zaporizhzhya regions.

Although it is difficult for them to go. Dnipropetrovsk region, however, concentrated there for the fall-winter. According to the earth, the Kremlin plans are generally unchanged. By the end of 2025, Moscow plans to expand the occupation zone in eastern Ukraine. The Russians still plan to capture Donetsk and Lugansk regions, to go in the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, and to create a "buffer zone" along the northern border with Russia, which they do not work very much.

The Russian command will also try to expand its tactical successes, in particular in the Kupyansk and Lyman direction. "In addition, we must remember that, without success on the front, Russia will probably be betting on terror of civilians, in particular, it is about attacks on energy infrastructure and terror of the frontier cities, as we see in Kherson," the expert said. However, according to the senior analyst, the Ukrainian command has its own plans for how to prevent the Russians.

It is likely that the command is already ready plans that will surprise the Russians. In parallel, Ukraine continues to intensify its long -range capabilities and already has the effect of Ukrainian blows, in particular on Russian refinery. The development of recruiting continues, as one way to effectively and qualitatively replenish the army with motivated people, in parallel with mobilization to resolve the issue of personnel famine.